Fergus Finlay: Invasion of Ukraine would be a war crime and we must fight to prevent it

Russian president Vladimir Putin appears to be on a mission to rebuild some kind of Russian empire, but there are diplomatic options open to the West that could dissuade him from doing so, writes Fergus Finlay.

Russian president Vladimir Putin. Picture: Alexei Nikolsky, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP

Are we on the brink of a world war? Should we be? Should the rest of the world decide that Russian president Vladimir Putin must be stopped at all costs? Or should the rest of the world wring its hands helplessly? 

Should we, a small country to the west of Europe with a long tradition of neutrality, do anything at all? Or should we hope it all avoids us? 

I wish I knew the right answers to all these huge questions. They’re political questions, but moral ones too. 

Ukraine, though a large country, is a poor one. Its political stance has been broadly neutral. It has tried to maintain friendships with both Russia and the European Union. The sense you get is that Ukraine would like to be part of Europe, but knows that Russia would simply not allow that. So it has tried to steer a middle course.

Throughout its history as an independent state (not a long history), Ukraine has been threatened by a much more powerful and bullying neighbour. We should get that too. Although there is a long history of corruption, Ukraine seems at the moment to be governed by people who want the best interests of its people.

Whatever about being involved militarily, it’s impossible to argue that Ireland in those circumstances should remain politically neutral. 

Ukraine faces an existential crisis, fomented by an international terrorist. We have no choice about what side we should be on.

There is, I think, no other way than that to describe Vladimir Putin. A man who holds no meaningful democratic mandate, he has suppressed free speech and dissent in his own country. He has imprisoned opponents in Russia and is strongly suspected of having sanctioned the murder of political opponents abroad.

He has already taken a substantial part of Ukraine through the illegal annexation of the Crimean Peninsula. He thumbed his nose at the rest of the world then, and the rest of the world swallowed hard and took it. There was much talk of sanctions at the time, and some were imposed, but it’s clear by now, surely, that he got away scot-free with that annexation. 

He was helped, it has to be said, by the fact that a substantial proportion of the people of the Crimea see themselves as Russian.

There is little doubt now that he intends almost immediately to annex at least a further substantial portion of Ukraine, including most of its eastern territory. That will probably just be the start, with Putin claiming that he has acted to protect Russian-speaking citizens in the east. 

However, Ukraine is effectively surrounded on three sides, with tens of thousands of Russian troops parked at its border with Russia, and tens of thousands more in Belarus to the north.

A Ukrainian servicewoman holds a teddy bear during a performance by Larisa Borisenko, for troops in eastern Ukraine. Picture: AP

The other thing that has to be factored in, in any consideration of Putin’s longer-term ambitions, is what appears to be his hardline ethnic nationalism. He believes, as far as I can read, that he has a mission to build, or perhaps to rebuild, a Russian empire. That would ultimately mean bringing all the countries where there are significant Russian minorities back under Russian control.

So after Ukraine, where next? Georgia? The Baltic states? A quarter of the populations of Latvia and Estonia have Russian backgrounds. Will he turn on his current best friend Alexander Lukashenko and decide to take Belarus back into the Russian nation?

It’s very hard to see what Putin is doing in anything other than nationalist terms. His actions right now serve no economic interest of Russia. They will not enhance Russia’s security. All he will do is make Russia bigger, and he seems willing to pay an enormous price to do it.

That’s because he knows the West will not go to war for Ukraine. There will be no American or European soldiers or tanks or aeroplanes helping to beat back the invasion. 

There will be talk, and economic sanctions, and further isolation. Russia and Putin will face them down. When Russia annexed Crimea, the West imposed economic, banking, and personal sanctions. They did some short-term damage to the Russian economy and its currency. However, they halted nobody in their tracks.

In case you think I’m arguing that the rest of the world should be contemplating military action against Russia, I’m absolutely not. The downward spiral that could involve is too horrific to contemplate. 

US president Joe Biden said the other day that the moment Americans start shooting at Russians, or vice versa, is the moment World War Three starts. That’s not wrong, and that’s how frightening this is.

Because the truth is that unless Putin is persuaded to back off now, sooner or later the rest of the world will have to draw a line in the sand. If troops start massing on the borders of the Baltic states, the West will have no choice. And there is simply no telling where he will stop if and when Ukraine falls.

What can be done then? I believe two things need to happen immediately.

First, Europe and America shouldn’t wait until an invasion is under way. They should be spelling out now, in immense detail, what sanctions will be imposed, how long they will last, and what impact they will have. 

They don’t have to make it public, but Putin and his allies need to understand now, in clear and explicit terms, that the lifeblood would be squeezed out of the Russian financial, banking, and trading economy, and the enormous personal assets of Russian oligarchs and politicians would be seized. If Putin and Biden meet, the US president has to be very blunt on that score.

US president Joe Biden speaking about Ukraine in the East Room of the White House, on Tuesday, February 15. Picture: AP Photo/Alex Brandon

The second thing America must do is reverse its own position on the International Criminal Court. Since George W Bush’s time, and most trenchantly under Trump, America has been one of the few countries that has refused to recognise the jurisdiction of the court, largely because of its own fear that Americans could be charged with war crimes arising from Iraq.

Since 2018, the International Criminal Court has recognised the armed invasion by one country of another as a prosecutable war crime. The invasion of Ukraine could be a de facto war crime, and if that invasion was accompanied by murder, torture, and imprisonment, it could be classified as a crime against humanity. Perpetrated by the leadership of Russia.

Russia, of course, doesn’t recognise the International Criminal Court either. However, if a country with moral authority were to make the case, and especially if the US was to back it by fully recognising the court, it would place Putin in a much more difficult position.

Effectively, he could become a wanted fugitive, subject to arrest in any jurisdiction other than his own. 

Whatever happens in the next little while, the entire world is facing a serious threat from Putin’s ambitions. The threat becomes immediate and terrible if war begins. The only way to prevent that now is to make sure the rest of the world doesn’t blink.

The invasion of Ukraine would be a war crime. The world has to be entirely serious when it says Putin will have to pay heavily for that crime.