Will this Government ever learn to say no to Nphet?

'If the Omicron variant is more serious, then Nphet and the HSE’s opposition to things like antigen testing, delays to the booster vaccine campaign, and their repeatedly flawed modelling will come into sharp focus.' File Picture: Gareth Chaney/Collins

For the second time in three weeks, the Cabinet has been forced into holding an emergency or unscheduled meeting on a Friday in response to recommendations to enhance limitations on our personal freedoms.

Rather than have National Public Health Emergency Team (Nphet) recommendations linger in the public domain over a weekend until its normal Tuesday meeting, ministers have been bounced into action by their own unelected advisors. It is all a bit unsettling.

Two weeks ago, Táoiseach Micheál Martin said the added restrictions announced then should be enough to get the country through the Christmas period without the need for lockdown conditions.

But alas, between a nearly hysterical reaction to the emergence of the Omicron variant and the wearisome tradition of Nphet to adopt an ultra-cautious approach, Christmas has been cancelled for the second year in a row.

Their job is to be concerned. But their job is also to advise on and not directly influence Government behaviour.

The continued leaking from Nphet, which has directly forced the Government's hand in recent weeks, has clearly sought to influence rather than strictly advise, and that is the cause of "considerable anger" within Cabinet.

Very few are saying Omicron is not a concern, and clearly it is more transmissible than previous variants — but why oh why is the only answer to these threats the imposition of restrictions?

What is the game plan here?

Twenty-one months into this, our response appears no more sophisticated or nuanced than it was in the early phases of this pandemic. Lockdown, shut up, go away.

We are still governed by what has become this affliction of “an abundance of caution” when it comes to the proposed restrictions.

The public service is horribly risk-averse at the best of times, but Covid-19 has seen this principle of caution taken to frankly ludicrous proportions, and not just in matters related to the pandemic.

One of my primary frustrations with the Government’s handling of the pandemic is their granting of such an elevated platform to unelected officials who have viewed, and continue to view, this pandemic through an overly narrow prism — that of public health.

But the Government, which was elected by the parliament itself elected by the people, has much broader considerations. Economic, societal, educational, and so on.

The failure of the Government to date to be in control of its narrative is to blame for the confusion and angst created in recent weeks around the messaging of the need for further restrictions.

This galling spectre of ministers being at war with their own health officials is deeply insulting to a population which, in the main, has been extraordinarily compliant, has shown a willingness to play its part, and has largely been ahead of the politicians in realising what has been needed.

Dr Tony Holohan and Taoiseach Micheal Martin speaking to the media at Government Buildings on Friday. Picture: Julien Behal

Indeed, recent polling has indicated that a majority of people, 57%, were in favour of additional restrictions being imposed as case numbers and hospitalisations were rising on foot of the so-called Delta wave.

Now, following several weeks of enhanced restrictions and devastation on our local economies, the position is steady and holding, albeit at a high level in terms of cases, hospitalisations, and intensive care unit (ICU) numbers.

Indeed, the numbers of those in hospital have been falling away in recent days, but yet the threat of Omicron has everyone spooked.

Health Minister Stephen Donnelly’s revelation in the Dáil on Thursday that Omicron accounts for 27% of all new cases, up from 1% the week before, was a stark illustration as to how fast this variant can spread.

However, the big question being asked by some in Government already is whether Omicron is a milder variant or not to Delta?

If so, then these precautionary measures will be seen as nothing short of a gross overreaction, which are having a devastating impact on small businesses all over the country.

If it is more serious, then Nphet and the HSE’s opposition to things like antigen testing, delays to the booster vaccine campaign, and their repeatedly flawed modelling will come into sharp focus.

Regarding their latest controversial recommendations, the proposal to close all hospitality settings at 5pm from Monday represents an effective curfew for many restaurants and pubs which only operate in the evenings.

They can legitimately cry foul at being unfairly targeted, given the sector as whole has endured so much uncertainty and ever-shifting sands as to what is expected of them.

December is the time when most eateries make enough money to sustain themselves during the lean months of January and February, and they have already had that boom period severely curtailed by Nphet’s earlier utterances.

We have seen a near-total wipeout of corporate bookings this Christmas, and many restaurants have taken to social media to articulate the impact of cancellations on their trade.

Paul Gallagher, general manager of Buswells Hotel in Dublin, tweeted on Thursday that his hotel has seen €40,000 in cancelled bookings so far this month.

“Society is restricting itself so this year my business is not being shut due to restrictions but it feels as if we are,” he lamented.

This was before Nphet’s latest round of proposed limitations.

But what is so puzzling about all of this is how the messaging is being handled.

On Tuesday, Dr Tony Holohan held a meeting with the three party leaders in Government to provide an update as to the Omicron variant.

The sense out of that meeting, from the political side at least, was that, yes, there may be some “tweaking” on the guidance around social gatherings, but in the main, the status quo would hold.

So, the legitimate question can be asked — what, if anything, changed so radically in 48 hours?

Was the Government told in full what is coming, and didn’t listen? Entirely possible.

Michael Ring was among the TDs to voice opposition to the new restrictions. File Picture: Gareth Chaney/Collins

Did Nphet provide such a broad range of scenarios that a great many possible views could be taken from what was said? Also entirely possible, and my sources tell me that is what happened.

Nphet’s Philip Nolan’s modelling presented the leaders with such a range of scenarios it is hard to be definitive as to what to expect.

Yesterday morning saw an understandable backlash from Government politicians as to what was being proposed.

Former ministers Brendan Griffin and Michael Ring did not hold back in calling for the Nphet recommendations to be resisted or rejected.

Ring said called on the Taoiseach and Tánaiste to reject the Nphet advice, saying to shut pubs and restaurants would be disastrous to those people who had followed the rules to the letter.

Fianna Fáil’s Barry Cowen, another former minister, suggested a 9pm or 10pm curfew was more workable in light of vaccination wall and boosters.

There was also considerable anger within Cabinet as to the nature of the advice and how it leaked out.

There is a strong sense, politically, that Nphet went “overboard” by calling for the 5pm curfew, in the expectation Government would land at where Cowen was suggesting, at 9pm or 10pm.

The major question now being asked by some ministers, finally, is how many more times will we have to endure this scenario?

When can we get on with simply living with Covid, rather than living in fear of whatever threat new variants will throw at us?

One minister, a recent convert to being sterner with Nphet, said a “day of reckoning” is coming when we simply say no to their advice.

For many, that day was many months ago, and we need a more nuanced, flexible approach that respects the needs of people to live their lives, free of restriction.

Ultimately, the scars of last Christmas are driving this obsession with caution this year. For that, we will pay a heavy price, without any clear reward.

Quite frankly, it is not good enough.