It’s sink or swim time for government
The Commission’s job has been to design a future for how we as a country will fund our water network.
Politically, however, the commission’s job is incredibly complicated, given the disparate make-up of the present Dáil.
On one hand, it must deliver a model which prevents Ireland from falling foul of stiff European rules, on the other realising the considerable political opposition to any return to water charges.
Some have said the commission must deliver a mechanism which will get Fianna Fáil off its abolitionist perch while allowing Fine Gael re-establish its commitment to water charges.
Having been the greatest political cock-up in living memory, the introduction of water charges represents the single greatest challenge to the stability of this minority government, other than Shane Ross and Enda Kenny’s rocky relationship.
In truth, the fate of water charges remains an uncertain one, and the chances of this government falling over the issue remains a very clear and present danger.
Housing Minister Simon Coveney is the man who has responsibility for managing this issue. And beyond the direct fate of water, he knows his chances of becoming the next Fine Gael leader are riding on this.
I understand Coveney anticipates that what is most likely to emerge is a system of charges whereby a generous allowance per person will apply, with usage above that allowance having to be paid for.
The allowance would be determined by the United Nations figures of what western adults and children require each day in terms of water usage.
It is believed that waivers would apply to the vulnerable, the elderly and the sick.
Bottom line, the system proposed will have to be sufficiently different from what went before to allow Fianna Fáil to be able to claim they killed off charges as we knew them.
While this is the expectation, delivering this is a whole other matter. Given this will be the fourth fresh start for water charges and Irish Water, its success is by no means guaranteed.
Firstly, there is no guarantee this will wash with Fianna Fáil, as it has yet to demonstrate that it fully knows what its stance on water charges is.
While Micheál Martin has been very strong in his public commentary about wanting nothing short of the abolition of charges, others in his party, like Michael McGrath, have advocated the type of regime detailed above.
Barry Cowen’s belated openness to a return of charges, as shown by his interview with Mary Wilson on RTÉ earlier this week, was illustrative of the divergence of opinion.
In light of the Confidence and Supply deal between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, which is underpinning the minority Coalition, Coveney and Cowen will be in very regular contact in the coming weeks and months to ensure agreement can be reached.
But, it will ultimately be for Martin and Enda Kenny to decide the final shape of a new water charges regime, and that could prove problematic.
We know that the sides came very close to agreeing a settlement on charges during the talks which led to the government’s formation, only for Fianna Fáil to back away from the deal, opting instead for the commission option and the nine-month suspension.
Looking ahead, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil will have a majority between them on this new 20-man Oireachtas Committee, which will consider the Water Commission’s report.
Should they agree, then whatever emerges as the new arrangement will ultimately become the law of the land.
The selection of Independent Senator Pádraig Ó Céidigh, who was a Fianna Fáil pick to be a Taoiseach’s nominee to the Seanad, was a clear example of how the two parties can work together.
Taoiseach Enda Kenny confirmed how Ó Céidigh came to be selected as chair in the Dáil, in response to Sinn Féin president, Gerry Adams.
“As this was a deliberative process between the two parties and part of the Confidence and Supply arrangement..., it is obviously necessary to have somebody who is competent, objective and capable of chairing deliberations, on a complex issue such as this, as chairman of the Oireachtas committee,” he said.
“An Seanadóir Ó Céidigh is an outstanding person, a businessman who is used to seeing clearly through complex issues and making decisions. I am sure he will fulfil his remit in this regard in a very clear, objective and fulfilling way. In that sense, the minister and his opposite number in the Fianna Fáil party discussed who would be appropriate to chair the committee,” Kenny told Adams.
The opposition cried foul. On Thursday, the Dáil was suspended amid complaints from Sinn Féin’s Eoin Ó Broin and AAA-PBP TD, Mick Barry.
Mr Barry opposed Government attempts to ‘sneak through’ a motion to impose a hand-picked chairperson on the water committee.
He said: “This is an attempt at a stitch-up by Fianna Fáil and the government to sneak through a motion on the chair of the water committee. It is an attempt to impose a hand-picked chairperson.”
There is no doubt the opposition to water charges in the Dáil is considerable and such venom is undoubtedly likely to dominate the airwaves in the wake of the report’s publication next week.
Bottom line is that if Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil can agree a compromise then the opposition from Sinn Féin and the other hard left TDs may be noisy but irrelevant when the time to vote comes.
Coveney and the government are hopeful that the past five months or so will not be in vain and that the expert-led commission report will give sufficient political cover to enable them to finally put the thorny issue of water charges to bed.
But, the stakes are high and the chances of an election as early as next March or April remain considerable.
In the context of poor relations between Fine Gael and the Independent Alliance, this weak minority government hasn’t got much chance of being able to withstand a major crisis on water charges.
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