A dangerous momentum gathers pace - Superpowers grow restless

IT’S just 60 years since there was a popular uprising in Hungary to try to end Soviet rule — though Russian historians, politicians, and contemporary culture insist that revolt was an early attempt at regime change inspired by western intervention.

Much the same arguments are in play today over Ukraine and the violent events in Kiev just two years ago.

The Hungarian rising — one of the first insurrections seen on television more or less as it happened — was crushed by Soviet tanks and a short, sharp military intervention. It may, from today’s perspective, seem a grainy footnote from the last century but maybe we should regard it as just another tragic but instructive punctuation mark in the never-ending struggle between the world’s superpowers, a perspective sharpened by today’s return to something pretty much like Cold War international relations. Recent events in Crimea support this chilling argument.

Once again the tectonic plates of geopolitical realpolitik shift and thousands upon thousands of people who wish for nothing more than a warm, contented life for themselves and their children are swept up by the relentless meat grinder usually driven by nationalism mixed with neo-imperialism, and sometimes religious fervour gone mad, or just old- fashioned megalomania — as the unfortunate besieged people trapped in Aleppo and Mosul can attest this morning.

The refugees — at least 230 — who died in the Mediterranean while trying to reach Europe in recent days were caught in this relentless grinder too as were the 4,220 others lost in the Mediterranean already this year.

Once again a Russian leader is characterised as something pretty close to a secular antichrist, and the differences between Western and Russian sensibilities and expectations, especially around individuals’ rights and freedoms, are highlighted. Putin may well be a kleptomaniac, a demagogue determined to cling to power so he can further enrich himself and his protective circle but elements of that characterisation have a far wider relevance — his narcissistic enthusiasm for self-enrichment is not by any means unique.

There is little enough comfort in that characterisation of Putin, and any that can be found must be diluted by the latest Washington Post/ABC News poll on America’s presidential race that gives Republican Donald Trump a one-point lead over the Democratic candidate Hilary Clinton. Even the calmest, the most sangfroid, beautifully manicured diplomat must shiver at the prospect of a superpower summit where Trump and Putin are two of the main players. Hilary Clinton’s record — remember, she strongly advocated war in Iraq — may offer some sliver of reassurance but not enough to calm racing hearts. Add the consequences of Brexit, an ever-more assertive China and an America going through profound change — irrespective of who succeeds No Drama Obama — and a new downward, momentum seems apparent.

We may, on the domestic front, be about to ignore expensive lessons from recent history so it might be too much to hope that others are more awake to how rapidly and dangerously our world is changing. Challenging times indeed.