Government talks: TDs are caught in a trap and they can’t walk out
Last week in the corridors of Leinster House, one Fine Gael minister stopped to chat about the ongoing talks to form a Government. “We can’t walk away, we are trapped” he said.
Things were not going well at this stage and anger was mounting as to the delay in striking a deal with Fianna Fáil. Myself and one of my colleagues put it to the minister that in light of the difficulty, why not walk away and let Fianna Fáil at it and go into opposition.
It may have been a quip from the minister, but I took it more as the mask slipping and it was the most accurate description of Fine Gael’s dilemma. As they have repeatedly told us, they are the largest party in the Dáil with 50 seats, but they are nowhere near the number they need to form a Dáil majority.
So while Temporary Taoiseach Enda Kenny and his inner team have made the running in trying to form a Government, their willingness to compromise on so many issues is a clear sign of their weakened position. Some within the party remain desperate to cling on to power, and see Kenny become the first Fine Gael Taoiseach re-elected, and that desperation has come at a significant cost.
That willingness to concede ground on so many points, has led many Fine Gaelers to privately ask the question whether they would be better off in opposition. But now we are in the space that a Fine Gael minority Government is the only viable option, the feeling of being trapped is coming to the fore.
Such feelings combined with the failure so far to agree a final deal with Fianna Fáil and the Independents reinforce my beliefs that whatever arrangement is arrived at, it is doomed to fail.
Fianna Fáil, for their part, appear to be relatively happy with where they stand. Never that keen to go into power, Fianna Fáil belatedly made an attempt to woo Independents last week.
Micheál Martin went on to annoy them all by issuing the “put up or shut up” threat, which led 14 of them to abstain from the vote for Taoiseach.
Since then, we have had this infuriating round of talks between the two big parties, bedevilled by limited actual facts, plenty of spin, and counter-spin from people claiming to be in the know.
On Thursday night, Finance Minister Michael Noonan spoke of a Fianna Fáil cave-in on the role of local authorities in Irish Water, only for that to be rejected vehemently by the Fianna Fáil team. It then emerged late that night that Fine Gael are now willing to consider suspending water charges while a new system can be cobbled together. So rather than a Fianna Fáil cave in, it was a Fine Gael climb down.
That sort of nonsense from such a wily politician as Noonan serves only to anger the increasingly impatient public.
But taking a step back, there has been a lingering suggestion that all of this heat is a phony war. In the background, Kenny and Martin have been in “regular contact” with each other and it is felt that by and large they are in agreement, with a few loose ends to tie up. Even if that is the case, there is still plenty of potential for this precarious house of cards to come crashing down.
Firstly, there is no guarantee either parliamentary party will stomach whatever concessions on water are finally agreed by the negotiating teams, but if the two leaders get behind the deal, then it should go through.
A trickier prospect is nailing down the disparate gang of Independents.
It is unthinkable that the 14 TDs who joined forces to abstain from the last vote for Taoiseach will hold together.
The six TDs of the Independent Alliance want to remain as a solid, united group. Yet, some members of the Alliance like Shane Ross, Michael Fitzmaurice and Finian McGrath were ready to support Kenny 10 days ago, but the position of John Halligan was delayed the group from declaring their hand.
Halligan said he withdrew from the talks process because of a lack of progress in terms of 24-hour cardiac care in Waterford Hospital. His predicament has been the source of some annoyance among the other alliance members, who fear his reluctance may jeopardise what they have managed to achieve for their own areas.
This weekend, Halligan signalled he is closer to coming back on board, which would lead me to conclude that a deal is possible and the Alliance will back Kenny next time around, albeit through gritted teeth.
The Rural Alliance is less clear. Given the Katherine Zappone deal, Fine Gael has lost the support of Mattie McGrath who lashed out at the giving of commitments on the 8th Amendment. Tipperary-based Mattie McGrath, a member of the loosely-linked five rural TDs group, made the remarks as divisions continued to appear among Independents.
In a message on social media after days of speculation, the unaligned Zappone said she secured specific commitments from Fine Gael in return for voting in favour of Mr Kenny during last Thursday’s Taoiseach nomination. The commitments for a “promised change” include increased public service investment; more affordable childcare; and greater school diversity. They also involve moves to examine a referendum on the Eighth Amendment and to “equality-proof” future national budgets.
Zappone said that while any formal position she may have in the next Government has yet to be discussed, these issues were pre-requisites for her giving support to Mr Kenny last week. However, McGrath said he disagrees with the issues contained in Ms Zappone’s deal and strongly suggested he will reject any Government that implements her policies.
“More power to her, but it is a sad state of affairs. Kenny is a desperate man for power. I won’t be dancing to any tune to that melody. I wouldn’t touch that with a barge pole,” he said.
A number of other Independents, including fellow rural TDs member Michael Collins, are also believed to be strongly opposed to any deal on abortion legislation.
The Healy Raes, Michael and Danny, looked to be split as what to do, with Danny opposed to supporting Kenny while Michael was ready to back the embattled Fine Gael leader.
Michael, speaking to me yesterday, said they will not commit either way until the deal between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil is finalised.
But the other major factor is the position of Enda Kenny. If re-elected, Kenny is likely to stand down within a matter of months. This has been seen as a significant element for some Independents, who strongly dislike Kenny on a personal level. The fact many of them ran on platforms opposing his policies has been a major impediment to progress so far. His departure could just be the necessary grease to ease a deal together.
At the end of a frustrating week, talks between the big two parties are to continue with the expectation could be completed within a couple of days. Please, oh please, let this all end soon.
CONNECT WITH US TODAY
Be the first to know the latest news and updates
