Power-sharing permutations are endless as Sinn Féin lies in waiting

In my days as a young political reporter if you’d asked me the difference between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil one of my first thoughts would have been: Fianna Fáil are far more craic.

If I had the choice of which árd fheis or party gathering I’d like to be sent to cover well, there was little contest in terms of where the party (in the drinking and singing sense) would be at.

The FF’ers always had an air of divilment and once they’d dispensed with formalities you knew, that it you wanted to, and had the stamina, there would be partying going on until the following morning.

Even back then I didn’t have that stamina, being a well-known social wilter, but it was all great fun. It was helped, of course, by the fact that they were in power. Partying with the FG’ers never felt quite the same.

The air always felt that bit more refined. Of course they would never wish to be on a par with Fianna Fáil anyway as they considered them an inferior lot in every way, whether it was to do with social skills or economic ones.

A Fine Gaeler reminded me this week how his former Dáil colleague, Louis Belton, used to say that the main difference between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil was “when we’re in, they’re out and when we’re out, they’re in”.

The same person recalled former Taoiseach John Bruton explaining how the existence of two such similar large parties in a small country offered the Irish voters non-radical change, or a sense that they had voted for change but basically things would remain the same.

The strength of that situation was that it kept the country on the safe and narrow, and away from fascism and the like.

While we’re at it let’s throw the views of former Finer Gael Tánaiste Peter Barry into the mix. I believe he said the reason why they existed was the mutuality that existed between them, and how their long-term futures were linked to each other.

I think of all of this when I think of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael entering a coalition after the next general election. The way the poll numbers are stacked right now it is looking like a distinct and plausible possibility.

When this was first mooted, not long after the last general election, I immediately felt that it would never and could never occur. It seemed outlandish. Intellectually you could see the possibility of the numbers adding up, but on an emotional level it just seemed too incredible.

However the possibility of a coalition is now a part of every day political conversation. Politicians, particularly when it comes to taking power, are the ultimate pragmatists no matter how seemingly impossible the proposal in front of them may seem.

But I can’t get away from the conclusion that if they were to go into government with each other one of these parties would cannibalise the other, and for some reason my instinct says that the FF wide-boys would be the one licking their lips afterwards in victory.

Fine Gael, in such an arrangement, would immediately be held to a higher moral standard, because that is how they have always sold themselves, and Fianna Fáil just wouldn’t be able to help themselves.

I know that in any such arrangement they are likely to be the smaller party but if I were Fine Gael I would approach with exceptional caution.

Leo Varadkar and Simon Coveney seemed to be beginning a political courtship of sorts this week, raising the possibility of such a coalition following the election.

It made me smile to remember the remarks of Minister Coveney, just a few months ago, regarding the damage done to the party by the IMMA/McNulty controversy when he said Fine Gael people were truly appalled because the biggest insult you can give to a Fine Gael person is to accuse them of being like Fianna Fáil “in terms of standards in public office, and that has been essentially what’s been happening now”

Anyway Simon seems to be getting over that prissiness now as he extended the hand of friendship, through the pages of this newspaper to the “very competent” Micheál Martin.

Discussing the matter with one Fianna Fáiler this week I was treated to a lengthy explanation of how Fine Gael is far more interested in helping those people who are reasonably comfortable, while the current Fianna Fáil Oireachtas group are focused on the less well off, including the elderly and those with special needs, who need help and assistance, and to concentrate on health and education “to build some sort of foundation for our society”.

Another deputy, speaking from the same hymn sheet, said that while politics had moved on from the Civil War the main difference now was in policy areas and how Fine Gael “have prioritised certain areas which we believe are the wrong ones at this time”.

Lord but it’s remains hard to hear the Fianna Fáilers peddle these sort of lines, and to take them seriously.

There is still the suspicion that they’d do anything to get back into power. Leaving aside the piety, I told them, why wouldn’t the party jump into bed with Fine Gael?

The main reason, according to these party members, was that Fianna Fáil would be seen to be jumping back into power too quickly, just for the sake of it, and this would be a fatal blow to their credibility in the longer term. “Fianna Fáil would be pushed further to the right and leave that space where we once were on the political spectrum”.

That is the other nub of this – Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil in power together would leave a wide-open space for Sinn Féin to be the main opposition party, and to build solidly on what is likely to be a successful election for them.

As things stand there is every chance there will be another general election fairly swiftly after the one coming up, given there is a strong possibility of a raggle taggle coalition which would be hard to envision lasting for any significant length of time.

The economic instability inherent in that sort of scenario, provided it didn’t go on for too long as to cause lasting damage, could well suit the Fianna Fáil party who would be seem to have shown proper constraint by staying out of Government and then riding to the rescue.

It does seem just now as if there is no end to the possible permutations to be faced after the general election. Political speculation is a far more speculative game than it ever has been in modern times. Who knows?