Ukraine crisis - Cold War battle lines redrawn

It may be premature to remind ourselves of the momentum that, almost unknowingly, gathered unstoppable force and reached a catastrophic climax right across Europe just under 100 years ago — July 28, 1914 — but as Ukraine has ordered a full military mobilisation in response to Russia’s build-up of its forces in Crimea it is unfortunately pertinent to do so.

The events of recent days worryingly approach that scale, even if today’s great alliances are not immediately toe-to-toe. That they have shown no appetite to be so ensnared is an entirely rational and proper response but, just as it was a century ago, the emergence of assertive nationalist movements in Russia’s hinterlands have an almost unique capacity to provoke crushing, profoundly anti-democratic responses from the Kremlin no matter who its incumbents.

John Kerry, the US secretary of state, already made the ominous comparison when he stated that “you just don’t in the 21st Century behave in 19th Century fashion by invading another country on completely trumped up pretext”.

Ukraine’s prime minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk added to a growing sense that events were assuming a dangerous momentum when he warned that Ukraine was “on the brink of disaster”.

Despite these declarations, America and the European Union seem unable to make a decisive intervention without contemplating something that was unimaginable even a week ago. Once again, the consequences of intervention may mean that those satellite states of the old Soviet Union and their people who wish to become more European than Russian will pay a very heavy price because of nothing more than an accident of geography and the habits of history.

The response of Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has dismissed America’s specific threats, does not auger well either. Mr Putin and his regime seem very confident, and there is very good reason that they might, that they can behave with a free hand in Ukraine and Crimea in this escalating conflict, one which is drawn along the old Cold War fault lines.

On Saturday, Mr Putin sought and was granted permission to use Russia’s military not just in the pro-Russian region of Crimea, but also throughout Ukraine. This threat, veiled as a request, came a day after President Obama warned that any violation of Ukraine’s “sovereignty and territorial integrity would be deeply destabilising”.

This is just one of many issues that are becoming ever more divisive between the old Cold War protagonists. The White House’s desire for Russia’s help to end Syria’s civil war and negotiating a nuclear accord with Iran are also proving to be stumbling blocks in an increasingly fraught relationship.

The coming days and weeks will be the most significant of the century so far in international relationships and diplomacy. They will be made ever more tense because Russia seems unwilling to tolerate defiance, strengthening moves towards democracy and embracing the opportunities of the EU within its orbit. Conversely, the rest of the world cannot tolerate the force and subjugation required to stop that move towards the kind of society we all, probably foolishly, take for granted.