Diplomacy facing two huge challenges

Two sets of important negotiations are running in parallel. One — hopefully — to end a process, the other — hopefully — to prevent a civil war or something as catastrophic breaking out on the fringes of Europe.

The Syrian government delegation at the Geneva peace talks has, even at this very early stage, threatened to quit the summit if “serious” discussions do not begin by this morning. No one imagined that these talks would proceed without great difficulties, but early indications do not inspire the kind of optimism the Syrian people and their neighbours must crave.

The fact that two of the main actors in the process — America and Russia — are at loggerheads on a central, unavoidable issue does not augur well. America insists that the president, Bashar al-Assad, cannot have any role in a new, post-war administration; the Russians insist that no one else can, for the moment, lead a new government. Though these positions are diametrically opposed, they might be considered almost compatible compared to the venom, intractability, and undisguised hatred that divide the embattled Syrian delegations. Though it is always necessary to be optimistic in these situations, this is a challenging scenario and it is very hard to predict how long it might take or how it might conclude. Hopefully the process will bring, in the not too distant future, an end to the carnage endured by the Syrian population for far too long. That hope must be informed by the hard realities of conflict resolution, ones that we know only too well — after all, the Irish peace process can be measured in decades rather than months or years.

While all of this is going on in Switzerland, the failure to reach a settlement in Ukraine, or even to agree a process that might begin to engage all sides and end the increasingly dangerous street violence, must set the alarm bells ringing. Just as is the case in Syria, this is a clash of ideology and expectations.

Just as some of those trying to topple the Bashar al-Assad regime and replace it with a reactionary theocracy, the protesters in the Ukrainian capital of Kiev want their country to align more closely with the comparably liberal European Union and distance themselves from the increasingly dictatorial and dominant regional force — Putin’s Russia.

That Russia will not easily relinquish its grip and that its allies-cum-puppets in power in Kiev are happy to stand in the way of stronger links with Europe may be a new script, but the plot is a familiar one in the history of eastern Europe. As the deaths of several protesters has confirmed, Viktor Yanukovych, the president, may have been emboldened by Mr Putin to the extent that he thinks his opponents might be silenced by force.

This seems very unlikely, just as it seems unlikely that Bashar al-Assad’s force’s will resolve that unfortunate country’s conflict in his regime’s favour.

It has been some time since the stakes in the never-ending game of international diplomacy have been so high, as both of these conflicts have the potential to spill over and spark region-wide conflict. Hopefully those directly involved realise the responsibility that puts on their shoulders.