X case free vote might put Micheál Martin into freefall

Though are just 19 of them in the Dáil now, all the Fianna Fáil TDs have a portfolio, so there is no ‘front’ bench or ‘back’ bench, just a bench — which is highly fitting, given Mr Martin’s wooden presentational style.

Not so much Dad’s Army, more Dud’s Army. In contrast, Enda Kenny has shown remarkably strong leadership on the X case issue.

Fianna Fáil leader’s customary indecision and his inability to assert himself have allowed the capable Michael McGrath to take charge on abortion and to show his fitness for the top job

ONCE they were the soldiers of destiny, led by ruthless command; now Fianna Fáil are the soldiers of disarray, led by General Weakness, aka, Micheál Martin.

Mr Martin’s surrender of power to the lower ranks, over the looming X case legislation, raises serious questions about his future.

Failure to appoint a deputy has fuelled the indiscipline, leaving everyone a foot soldier, ready to take pot-shots at Mr Martin.

Fellow Cork-regiment veteran, Michael McGrath, would be obvious choice as second-in-command, but it appears, at least on abortion, that he already has more control than Mr Martin over the party.

Mr McGrath broke ranks last week, when he said a free vote on the proposed X case laws was the only way forward.

If Mr Martin had a firm grip on his party, he would have slapped down mutinous Mr McGrath there and then, but he let the rebellion rumble on, until the demands became unstoppable.

The situation is more dangerous for Mr Martin because Mr McGrath is by far the most effective front-line performer for Fianna Fáil.

Mr McGrath was impressive in the Dáil on the night of the emergency wind-up of Anglo: he asked real questions in real time, showing that he was able to grasp a rapidly unfolding and complex situation, while Mr Martin bleated on the sidelines scoring cheap points off the Government.

Now, rather than leading his party, Mr Martin has been pushed by a minority within the Oireachtas body to cede control over policy for what will be the most talked about and memorable Dáil vote for many years. Despite insisting the X case legislation represents a “pro-life” bill, Mr Martin was unable to bring his party with him.

And given the fact that the proposed laws will still leave women in this Republic under one of the most restrictive regimes in Europe — victims of rape, incest, and those with unviable pregnancies will still have no access to a termination at home — the new laws could certainly not be called pro-choice.

But even with the highly conservative nature of legislation, a sizeable minority of TDs and senators have been allowed to lead, instead of Mr Martin.

It is grimly ironic that the biggest revolt was in the Seanad cohort, among many of the very senators that Mr Martin tried to deselect from running for the upper house in 2011.

In that showdown, which was intended to re-brand the party, Mr Martin also failed to impose his will and now reaps the rewards of failure.

Like all cornered generals, Mr Martin had little room to manoeuvre by the time it came to last Thursday’s crunch parliamentary meeting, and had no choice but to put the best sheen on the white flag he was raising over Leinster House.

By that point, it was clear a key chunk of the infantry would desert rather than take orders they felt their consciences could not follow. A better tactician would have seen this ambush coming and headed it off.

Mr Martin delayed showing his own hand for months over the X case legislation, despite the post-Savita Halappanavar-era making it inevitable.

Mr Martin’s ambiguity on the issue gave the green-light to a rebellion, as, just last summer, he mused that the case for legislation had not been made — despite two decades of a docile Dáil too timid to comply with a landmark Supreme Court ruling.

Some people think that Mr Martin is indecisive, but he cannot make up his mind up if they are right or not.

With such depleted numbers, Mr Martin knew he could not risk mass defiance in the parliamentary party, but someone with a better grasp of realpolitik would have turned this into a strength, by announcing a free vote on such an exceptional issue from the off, thus looking like a strong, forward-thinking leader, not, as now, a battered, backward-looking follower.

It appears that Mr McGrath is the power behind the throne, which puts him in a much stronger position to snatch the crown in the run-up to the next general election.

But despite the reduced Fianna Fáil numbers, there are others who could take on the mantle, apart from Mr McGrath.

If you see politics as a strategic chess game, Dara Calleary would be your man.

If you see it as a political brawl, Niall Collins would fit the bill — and if you see it as a retro-comedy nightmare, Willie O’Dea springs to mind.

Mr Martin showed a similar lack of grip over last year’s EU referendum, when Eamon O’Cuiv was allowed to go rogue. Despite that indiscipline, Dev’s descendant is back on the front bench.

Though given that there are just 19 of them in the Dáil now, all the TDs have a portfolio, so there is no ‘front’ bench or ‘back’ bench, just a bench — which is highly fitting, given Mr Martin’s wooden presentational style.

Not so much Dad’s Army, more Dud’s Army. In contrast, Enda Kenny has shown remarkably strong leadership on the X case issue.

The Taoiseach would clearly have preferred not to have been put in this position by events, but he has led from the front since the expert group delivered its verdict and he accepted the post-Halappanavar mood of the nation and pushed forward.

Despite the outrageous level of threats and attempted interference in domestic politics by the Vatican, Mr Kenny has stood firm and told dissenting Fine Gaelers that the party stands or falls as one.

However, Mr Kenny cannot have things both ways, as it was ludicrous for him to dismiss Dáil calls to allow assisted suicide by insisting it was not “his place” to do so.

Mr Kenny is head of the legislature, and the country’s chief law maker.

If it is not “his place” to do so, whose is it?

A far better approach would have been to make clear his objections to assisted suicide and state why he would not use his powers to change legislation in this highly emotive area.

A few Blueshirts will slip overboard on abortion, but it looks like Mr Kenny has managed to exercise the smack of firm government over the vast bulk of his troops.

The danger for General Weakness is that a Fianna Fáil free vote could be the beginning of a free-fall for Mr Martin’s leadership.