Sorry, but subjects of banks, lending and austerity won’t go away in 2013

THERE are loads of topics I’d prefer not to write about for this column, or talk about on my radio programme, during 2013.

There are many reasons for this, but partly because I’m bored writing about them, having written about them so often in recent years. So why not just move on and write and talk about other things? This may seem like a strange way to invite you to read a column but I’m now going to list my least favourite likely topics for writing about during 2013 (and for covering on radio) and explain why I’ll still be covering them, despite my (and possibly your) misgivings.

ABORTION: We’re going to get legislation for the introduction of what is almost certain to be the most limited form of abortion possible. This will not dissuade elements in the anti-abortion lobby from a campaign of distortion and lies, such as claiming that the Government is introducing “abortion on demand”, exaggerating greatly what is going to be enshrined in law. Many politicians will be put under intolerable pressure. Much of the public discourse will be ugly. But the legislation has to happen and it will have to be covered by the media which, like the politicians, cannot be cowed from dealing with the issue.

BANKS AND DEBT FORGIVENESS: Many of the suicides that have happened in Ireland in recent years, particularly among middle-aged men, can be attributed to the manner in which some banks have been chasing debts. While sympathy for those who borrowed too much — and who “invested” greedily — may be scant, such borrowers may need to have strong character to deal with the way some banks are going about regaining their money. Some strong characters have been able to secure debt forgiveness: often the more money is owed the better the chances of cutting a deal on the basis that the full amount is known to be not recoverable. But for many smaller borrowers the repayments are as impossible, yet the banks are unforgiving when it comes to cutting deals. The idea that people are let off part of their debts is not popular but it is going to have to happen on a more reasonable basis during 2013.

BANKS AND LENDING: The banks had the bulk of their bad property loans removed from them and were given new capital so they could resume one of their primary functions: lending to the real economy. Unfortunately, it was commercial loans that were removed, as if the lending done to the residential sector was not a significant problem too. They have become excessively conservative in their lending now and small businesses are suffering as a result. It is a topic that will continue to require attention during the year.

NAMA: How many people follow the activities of this State agency on a regular basis, outside of the business pages? Yet Nama, the National Asset Management Agency, is central to the restoration of the State to good financial health, or at least to not doing it any more damage. Its operations are too opaque unfortunately — hiding behind bull about the need for commercial sensitivity and client confidentiality when it’s our money it plays with — but there are good reasons for believing that the enormous task it undertakes in trying to recover the money it spent on acquiring property loans from the banks is beyond it. If there is not enough coverage in the conventional media then follow events on a website called NAMAwinelake; it is excellent but may not be good for the blood-pressure.

ANGLO IRISH BANK: The damn bank (now merged with Irish Nationwide and called the Irish Bank Resolution Corporation, IBRC) has impoverished the country but will still be with us for over a decade as it is wound down. People may prefer to forget about its existence but it should be monitored with great interest. What is it getting up to as it sells its loans for example or writes off debts as a way of getting loans off its books? What value for money are the Australian boss Mike Anysley and other executives offering, especially as so many of them are on over €400,000 per year? Who are Anysley’s preferred clients in Ireland? How did Sean Quinn and his family get into the position of having moved so many assets overseas before IBRC belatedly went after them?

SEÁN QUINN: The great corporate soap opera of 2012 will get many outings this year, having started again yesterday when Seán Quinn finished his first sentence for contempt of court and was released. Will he be sent back for another stretch? Will his son Seán junior be able to recover the Irish State’s money as demanded? Will nephew Peter ever set foot south of the border again? Will supporters in Cavan open their eyes to how the Quinn family tried to put about €500m in assets — that had nothing to do with the loans for buying shares in Anglo — “beyond the reach” of the State instead of making the proper repayments? This one just won’t go away.

THE TROIKA: The Government badly wants the troika of IMF, European Union and European Central Bank to go away, so it can “return to the markets” for its borrowings and claim the restoration of economic sovereignty. To do this we first need a deal with the EU and ECB on both the annual cost to the State of funding the Anglo promissory notes — a payment of €3.1bn each March — and some sort of refund on the €48bn spent on recapitalising the continuing banks. That will continue to dominate the headlines until we get some sort of deal. Then we’ll have loads of excited coverage about how the Government intends issuing bonds to raise the money to finance its day-to-day activities. But will the troika really go? I reckon it’s about 50/50.

AUSTERITY: Austerity will continue if the troika gives us a new deal on providing loans (let’s stop with this nonsense term “bail-out” please). It will have to do if the troika is to get its money back, even if this austerity does the economy little or no good and most certainly does not benefit its citizens living conditions. Austerity will not end even if we return to the markets. We still face more tax increases and spending cuts. Do I want to write about this, do you want to hear about it? Probably not. But it remains central to our day-to-day living and cannot be ignored.

THE RECESSION: We’ve heard more than enough of this over the last five years. (It would be more accurately described as a depression). Politicians would like to wish it away but it can’t be. There may be some encouraging signs, such as increased consumer spending that implies a bit more confidence returning, but as an export dependent economy we are at the mercy of international events. The EU looks like the least dynamic economic zone internationally, one that is in danger of going into relative long-term decline. We have to hope for the best though.

THE EU PRESIDENCY: This nonsense is not just going to cost us about €60m and take the time of ministers who can barely cope with their existing workload, but it is going to provide us with an overload of hyperbolic nonsense as to what an “honour” it is and how much good it’ll bring Ireland. Grind the teeth time. I’ll do my best to avoid this topic.

Two things I promise I won’t write about that don’t feature on that list: the British royal pregnancy and Kim Kardashian’s. The arrival of the babies might feature on the front page though.

*The Last Word with Matt Cooper is broadcast on 100-102 Today FM, Monday to Friday, 4.30pm to 7pm.