EU referendum - New date is best chance of success

There has been no satisfactory response from Government about suggestions that the referendum on the EU fiscal pact be deferred.

Like World War I generals ordering battle-weary troops to fix bayonets and charge enemy machine guns one more time, they seem unwilling to recognise that circumstances have changed dramatically. They have, and they seem set to change even more so as François Hollande is all but certain to be president of France within weeks.

Yesterday’s announcement from Transport Minister Leo Varadkar that a revised memorandum of understanding between the Government and the troika would incorporate some measures to stimulate the economy and create jobs — especially in a very welcome school building — do not really close off the argument.

Yesterday’s reiteration from Hollande that, if elected, he would not ratify the treaty unless measures to promote jobs and economic growth were incorporated, suggest that tying ourselves to the May 31 date is at the very least imprudent and certainly impetuous.

That Hollande pointed out that the result of our referendum should not be taken for granted, may or may not be a thinly veiled suggestion that we vote “no” to give France and others more leverage when they confront the EU’s economic hawks. A “no” vote here might suit France’s negotiating position but it would be disastrous for us.

Whichever way his remarks are interpreted, the original question remains — why would we vote to accept a treaty that one of the few countries, powerful enough to do so, says, if it elects a new president, it will insist on it being revised?

That these revisions allay the fears of so many of those opposed to its ratification, especially a growing number of trade unions, only adds weight to the idea that we defer polling. Difficulties in the Netherlands strengthen that conviction. The obvious implications for foreign investment here add to the argument too.

The prospect of the amendment being rejected casts a shadow over yesterday’s welcome confirmation that the troika have accepted we reached targets set out for the sixth review in our bailout programme. If we were to vote “no” and put ourselves beyond a second bailout — other than the fairytale one existing only in the imagination of some of those opposed to ratification — then all of the sacrifice and hard work needed to reach yesterday’s target could well be undone. Any international credibility rebuilt by achieving those targets would also be squandered. That credibility would be further tarnished if we decide to defer the vote only after the French presidential election.

It is hard to understand why deferring the vote might be so problematic, especially as a revised pact would more than likely be endorsed by a great majority of people. Unfortunately, it is far easier to imagine what might follow if the May 31 date is unchanged and the amendment is rejected.

It is nearly impossible to understand why a Government committed to having the pact ratified, as it seems are the majority of the electorate, cannot defer voting to ensure the result that would best serve Ireland is secured. It’s still not too late to stand down the troops and wait to fight on a day when the odds are more in our favour.