Do you think 2011 was a bad year? Well, the worse is still to come

SINCE 1764 pundits attempt to accurately predict Ireland’s events of each New Year. Best known of these is Old Moore’s Almanac, established by Theophilus Moore, a clerical academic from Milltown, Dublin.

Despite lacking his perspicacity, let me chart our course ahead. Met Éireann generally, Evelyn Cusack in particular, constantly remind us that long range weather forecasting (beyond six days) is bunkum. They are right. Soothsayers’ suggestions of scorching summers or snowy winters transpire to be nonsense.

Economic prospects? A fifth consecutive year of contracting GNP looks likely. Negatives outweigh positives. Spending power by consumers has to tighten. The inevitable impact of additional living costs is reckoned to be more than €2,000 per household. These comprise: higher commuting costs (eg public transport fares, car parking charges, tolls, fuel and insurance); dearer health insurance & college fees; new household charge; higher VAT; reduced drug refunds and child benefit cuts. Cash is being sucked by the state out of people’s pockets and won’t be available as revenue for businesses in the domestic service economy. In turn, investment by business will abate and incomes stagnate.