When it comes to politics, we need to get out of poll position

TODAY we should find out who is our ninth president of Ireland. The opinion polls published last weekend suggested that Sean Gallagher, independent, would win comfortably.

Events on Monday and Tuesday suggested that Gallagher might not prevail. I’m not so sure and I’m not brave enough to call the likely result when the votes are counted today. Gallagher almost certainly lost significant support as a result of Monday and Tuesday’s events but enough to stop him getting first preferences?

Even if he lost a quarter of those intended voters, bringing his score back to 30% from 40%, he still stands a chance, although if half went to Higgins, who had been at 25%, then he would probably lose on transfers. The source of the allegations against him might even help in a perverse way to limit the losses. Many people may have seen this campaign as a Sinn Féin “black ops” play. His accuser Hugh Morgan may well have an accurate recollection of what happened — and have the cheque stubs for his contribution to Fianna Fáil — but his previous conviction for tax evasion — and suggestions that he has been close to other Sinn Féin figures — gives rise to legitimate questions as to his motivation. (That he paid the money is not in dispute but he could have posted it — the existence of cheque stubs proves nothing about the method of delivery).