Cycle of recovery - Optimistic prediction

HOW refreshing it is to have even one positive forecast to consider.

Yesterday’s upward revision of its gross domestic product (GDP) forecast for 2011 by the Central Bank is very welcome, even if it might be foolish to bet the farm on the prediction coming to pass.

In its July quarterly bulletin the Central Bank said GDP would increase by 0.8% this year but it felt emboldened to change that figure to 1% yesterday.

It is indeed an indication of the depth of the crisis that we face that such a small revision might be an occasion for cheer but had it gone in the other direction it would have been just another cloud hanging over us all. However, the bank predicted that gross national product (GNP), will decline at a sharper rate of -0.4%, instead of the previously forecast -0.3%.

These are not champagne figures, more of a calming set of steady-as-she-goes starting points.