He may be out in front, but Norris will have to look over his shoulder
The public hardly wants a six-month long campaign and I doubt too if the political parties are keen on the idea of having to gear up again so soon after fighting a general election campaign.
Maybe Norris is hoping to take advantage of that. If he can establish himself in the public’s mind now as the only real contender for the job then it might become difficult for the political parties to launch an alternative. Indeed some might not even bother if the public gets so used to the idea of Norris as president; they might just say let him have it.
Fianna Fáil for example must be dreading this presidential election campaign. It would be incredible if it were not to contest — a sure sign of the decline of the party — but what would be the point in enduring further humiliation by running a candidate who might not merely be an also ran but who could, if the results of the general election campaign be repeated, come in near the tail of the field?
The idea that former Taoiseach and party leader Bertie Ahern might run surely has been extinguished by what happened in the general election. There can hardly be a Fianna Fáil member or supporter in the country who’d be prepared to go out to canvass for votes for him. The party will find it hard to get any of its remaining members out to push any candidate under its colours — unless the party can somehow find an inspirational candidate from outside its ranks, which is most unlikely — but the idea that Ahern would be their standard bearer is laughable. He is one of the last people the party would nominate and campaign on behalf of. Not that Ahern would allow himself be put in a position where the public could really tell him what it thinks of him. His ego would not allow it.
Ireland South MEP Brian Crowley seems the most likely internal candidate, someone whose popularity, as measured by previous vote getting, might garner support in a way no other Fianna Fáil candidate would. However, Crowley is a cautious politician who realises that he’d have had a great chance if the presidential election had taken place shortly after the 2007 general election but that all has changed utterly since.
He has done much of the ground work with individual interview appearances on Miriam O’Callaghan’s Saturday night TV show and The Late Late Show, during which he addressed the accident that left him wheelchair bound, other family tragedies and spoke at length about his deep Catholic convictions. He frustrated Ryan Tubridy when, apparently to the surprise of his host, he played coy about a presidential bid. He may well be glad now of that: if the chances of winning are almost non-existent why would he want to endure the great strain that would be involved in a nationwide campaign between now and October? It is starting to look as if Fianna Fáil may just give this particular election a miss.
There is likely to be a contest within Fine Gael for the nomination though, especially as the now largest party in the State must be confident that it could complete the double. However, the party still needs a candidate with strong personal appeal because by the time October comes the sheen of this electoral success may have dulled dramatically. Two MEPs appear the front-runners as former Taoiseach John Bruton has ruled himself out.
Mairead McGuinness has shown herself very ambitious and has high a national profile because of her previous work as a television presenter — something that helped Mary McAleese during the 1997 campaign — but she failed to get elected to the Dáil in 2007 which may raise some doubts about her. It also means though that she has no other national ambitions in politics. Seán Kelly, the former GAA president, is likely to be a strong candidate who will use his role in opening Croke Park to rugby and soccer to push his credentials as a moderniser. Both, if nominated, would be strong candidates.
We know there will be a contest within the Labour party. Michael D Higgins and Fergus Finlay have both declared their intention to seek the nomination. Higgins, recently retired as a TD, has a long track record, including a distinguished spell as a cabinet minister, and is the type of colourful orator who would bring notice to the position of president if he held it. Finlay also has distinguished political service, if more in the background as an adviser, and a high public profile because of his work as a commentator (including with this newspaper). His work with the children’s charity Barnardos is also admirable. Both are strong candidates who would hope to build on Labour’s recent election showing but who would also have to wonder if the Labour brand is strong enough to get them elected.
Dana Rosemary Scallon tried in her own right the last time around and she might just be tempted to have a go again given that her profile has been maintained by a spell in the European Parliament and now as a judge on a RTÉ television talent show. Whether her conservative views would attract any more than they did 14 years is doubtful.
Others might be wary of pitching in with a party after the way Chernobyl charity campaigner Adi Roche suffered the last time around when nominated by Labour.
A CANDIDATE like Mary Davis may prove attractive if she can establish a high enough profile. She would not be a media-driven candidate, but would be known throughout the country for her exceptional work with Special Olympics, especially in bringing the World Games to Ireland in 2003. Davis is now running Special Olympics throughout Europe and Asia but continues to give service in this country as a member of the Council of State. She is a very modest but exceptionally able and effective woman in her work and would be able to connect with people domestically and represent us internationally. It is to be hoped that she or other female candidates will not suffer from some campaign that it’s a man’s turn to get the job after 21 years of the other two Marys presiding in the Áras. Remember, we have never had a female Taoiseach and women remain massively under-represented in both the Dáil and government. To discriminate against a woman for the job of president on the basis that it should be a man’s turn would be hypocritical.
So what about the man who has made himself the front-runner? Is Ireland ready for a gay president? Norris has said his sexuality is not an issue and nor should it be when it comes to his suitability for the job. Norris’s major contribution to Irish life was his legal campaign to have homosexuality decriminalised, an achievement for which he should always be congratulated. But the job of president is not about rewarding people for some they have done in the past, it is about what they can do with it. Norris would be loud and obvious in the job and clearly believe that he would enjoy himself but would we enjoy him over a protracted period if it seemed that he was merely indulging himself? A campaign will tell us much more about Norris and his suitability for the job but he should be worried that being the early front-runner can be a dangerous. He may have started out too early and will need to look over his shoulder.
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