A FG/FF coalition? Stranger things have happened in Irish politics ...

THE conventional wisdom is that this election is all over bar the shouting. Certainly, the polls have settled down somewhat with Fine Gael in the mid-30s, Labour in the low-20s, Fianna Fáil in the high-teens, Sinn Féin the low-teens and similar support for Independents. The Greens seem set for a wipeout.

On the face of it, therefore, the next government will most likely be a FG-led coalition with Labour and the next two-and-a-half weeks of campaigning is just about deciding their relative strengths in the coalition negotiations and how many Mercs each party receives.

Still, even if the election has become ostensibly predictable, it would be unwise to underestimate the significance of such a result. Fine Gael would be the largest party in the State for the first time in its history. Labour’s dreams of assuming that position might have receded in recent months but for it to move up to second place is still no mean feat. The next Dáil will also include by far the largest SF contingent since the mid-1920s.