Egypt in crisis - Poverty is at the root of revolution

EVEN if President Hosni Mubarak is still in power when the “million man march” planned for today — the eighth day of protest — takes place it is hard to see how very much longer he can cling to office.

Even yesterday’s cabinet reshuffle, which had a familiar air of desperation about it, is unlikely to quench demands for political, social and economic reform. The momentum is such that Mubarak’s 30-year dictatorship cannot last much longer without resorting to the kind of brutality that would further enflame the situation and alienate his international support.

That the former army officer has been in power for three decades is another indication of how America’s commitment to democracy can be flexible if those who bypass the rights so celebrated in America’s constitution trump them by supporting America’s interests in pragmatic, tangible ways. The dynamics of that accommodation were reflected in global markets yesterday when share prices fell across Asia and Brent oil hit a 28-month high on foot of the crisis.

During his three decades as leader of the most populous Arab state Mubarak has maintained a level of stability uncommon in the Middle East and sustained good relations with Israel and the West. These achievements are not enough to silence the accusations of corruption, state brutality and terrible, widespread poverty. Today, as we harrumph about the fine pensions retiring politicians will get when Taoiseach Brian Cowen moves to dissolve the 30th Dáil, we might consider the great fortune Mubarak has amassed while in office. It is estimated to be in the region of €20bn, more than enough to build his very own football stadium if he has any regrets about his time in politics.

That Mubarak’s time is coming to an end was confirmed by President Obama who urged reform and spoke about “an orderly transition”. Everyone in the West will hope that transition comes while there is still the prospect of a moderate government rather than a radical one inevitably antagonistic towards the West.

Though he is 82 and has become fabulously wealthy through opportunities afforded by office, these are not the reasons Egyptians want him toppled. Just as we were content to enjoy the fruits of the Celtic Tiger and did not cry foul until the great illusion was exposed, Egyptians are demanding change because they will no longer live in dreadful poverty. Like anyone trying to survive on the barest resources they are far more concerned about daily challenges to their survival than they are about political vanities or the Swiss bank accounts where their leaders hoard the spoils of power.

Like virtually every revolution in history it is rooted in poverty and the denial of opportunity. Political historians sometimes try convince us great events were shaped by principle or nationalism but as is shown on the streets of Cairo today the absence of opportunity, brutal suppression and hunger combine to make a far more lethal cocktail. And as we face several years of austerity we would be wise to consider how economic collapse will reshape our lives and our country.

We should give thanks too that unlike Egypt, where the future will be decided by where their army’s loyalties lie, we have a vote we can use to remove dysfunctional governments.