Dissident threat - Destructive cycle must be broken

OUR history has many patterns but one of the most obvious and disheartening is the time-honoured scourge of violent minorities refusing to accept decisions reached by the most democratic and inclusive processes.

The “split” has cursed nearly every political and social advance seen on this island and too often the potential offered by new agreements has not been realised because of the anti-democratic opposition of a tiny minority prepared to use violence to pursue their ends.

Whether our enthusiasm for “the split” represents an unshakeable commitment to the highest ideals, as the keeper-of-the-flame minority usually imagines, or a rejection of democracy, is easily decided but that has not protected this country from the violence of generations of refuseniks. It seems we are at that sorry, tragically stupid point once again, or at least very close to it.

Senior security sources on both sides of the border have warned that republican paramilitary groups are growing stronger and stronger and have recruited more than 600 members. A rejuvenated Real IRA is regarded as the most dangerous entity. This 600 figure is a considerable advance on previous estimates which suggested that less than 400 people were involved.

The Real IRA recently replaced its leader – believed to be one of the five men found responsible, after a civil court case, for the Omagh bombing in August 1998 – with a younger and more aggressive Derry-based leadership. A recent rally of over 1,000 people in Tyrone, where Brian Arthurs, a former commander of the IRA in the area, became one of the most senior and influential republicans to publicly criticise Sinn Féin for their commitment to Stormont, has added to the momentum. The large attendance at the event, where an IRA colour party fired a volley using assault rifles and handguns, surprised security forces.

It is nearly always impossible to satisfy extremist views in a bitterly divided society struggling to build a consensus, but those extremist views usually need something other than their own disenchantment to become a real threat. The North’s economic difficulties, and its almost complete dependence on state employment, may just be that catalyst.

On Saturday, thousands of demonstrators took to Belfast’s streets opposing cuts announced by British Chancellor George Osborne, which, it is claimed, could cost the North up to 50,000 jobs. Unemployment on this scale and a severe reduction in public services could create fertile recruitment opportunities for dissidents. The same holds true south of the border. The converse is also true; renewed political violence can only make it harder to resolve the economic difficulties that leads to violent disenchantment.

Our history teaches us another lesson. When politics works for the good of all, without fear or favour, the men of violence are redundant. Just as the economy is a huge challenge to all politicians on this island, so too is the nascent resurgence of militant republicanism. The best way to keep the guns silent is to make politics work and even if our economic crisis dominates the agenda a political solution must be found to break this destructive cycle.