For a proper heave against Cowen, an intrepid warrior is needed

I USED to be an inveterate funeral goer – several per week. I hadn’t been to one for the past two years until the unexpected death of newspaper man and former schoolmate, Alan Ruddock.

Outside the Dalkey church, when discussing his sad and sudden passing I heard an anecdote about him. As editor of The Scotsman, when approached by a journalist colleague as to what he would write for a looming deadline, as there was nothing new, Alan is alleged to have replied, “If there is no news, make up a story, you lazy git”.

After all the kerfuffle in Fine Gael, it seems unfair that they should hog the limelight of political drama. A proper heave in Fianna Fáil is long overdue. If a negative poll can cause panic in FG, surely even more dire ratings can act as a catalyst for FF. The portents could not be worse. Only one in eight polled expressed satisfaction with the Government. FF were relegated to a distant third place with 17%. Cowen’s approval ratings are on the floor. Relative to the 2007 general election result of 42%, some 30 Dáil deputies are facing the chop. Polls cannot be totally dismissed as virtual, given the 25% vote in last years local and Euro elections, with no Dublin MEP and loss of 100 council seats. Backbenchers’ prospects are akin to November turkeys.

Fianna Fáil have rules and procedures to cover all eventualities. Charles Haughey faced five heaves between February 1982 and his ultimate demise in January 1992. His tactics in facing down his detractors were legendary. The Jack Lynch/George Colley faction never accepted his election in December 1979. He ruthlessly deployed strong arm tactics. He insisted that a public roll call vote, rather than secret ballot, was necessary for transparency for the grass roots. This ensured maximum intimidation at constituency level and created the “gang of 22”. Despite the departure of some to the Progressive Democrats, he was challenged again in late 1991, before finally being toppled by Albert Reynolds two months later. Since then, FF infighting has been absent.

The election of Albert Reynolds was a non contest as the Haughey protégée Bertie Ahern intimated a candidacy that never materialised. When Labour departed coalition with FF, arising out of the Fr Brendan Smyth debacle, a no confidence motion was signalled. Bertie was ready to assume the leadership. Reynolds resigned. Maura Geoghegan Quinn was expected to contest, but declined. Ahern’s election was relatively smooth. Cowen’s coronation without a contest marks an effective FF ceasefire for more than 18 years. Prospects for the most intense blood sport are long overdue. Being in Government usually precludes backbench rebellions. The relentless boredom and unsated ambition of opposition is fertile territory for leadership unrest. The “Don’t hit me with the baby in my arms” sentiment allows embattled leaders in Government buildings to rely on the national interest and continuity of governance as defensive bulwarks. Largesse that a Taoiseach can dispense ensures loyalty and a support base of ministers. Power means the incumbent leader can assuage disharmony with constituency favours. Brian Cowen controls most of the aces in the deck of political cards.

FF rules state that 10 deputies’ signatures are required to table a motion of no confidence in the party leader. I think we can find these among existing hard core rebels. John McGuinness, Mattie McGrath, Máire Hoctor, Noel O’Flynn and Chris Andrews are pencilled into my early shortlist. Axed former office holders also could include Sean Power, John Browne, Brendan Kenneally, Noel Treacy, Noel Ahern, Tom Kitt, Michael Kitt and Mary Wallace. Additional possibilities as malcontents include backbenchers overlooked repeatedly for promotion: Johnny Brady, Thomas Byrne, Sean Ardagh, Niall Collins, John Creegan, Sean Flemming, Michael McGrath, Michael Moynihan, Michael Mulcahy, MJ Nolan, Darragh O’Brien, Timmy Dooley, Niall Blaney and Sean O Feargail. Our cup overfloweth.

Another cohort of disgruntled parliamentarians includes those who have had their pension entitlements severely curtailed – Bertie Ahern, Rory O’Hanlon, Ned O’Keefe, Frank Fahey, Pat “the Cope” Gallagher and Michael Woods. The key element of the arithmetic relates to the FF rule that only allows TDs elect their leaders. At the latest count, there are 72 such individuals. The magic majority figure is above 36.For a viable heave against Cowen, a big beast is required to come out to play. Such a contender runs the risk of falling prey to Michael Heseltine’s maxim, “he who wields the knife never wears the crown”. For the purposes of this script, we need an intrepid warrior. Micheál Martin is speculated to be the strongest leadership challenger. He is a wily operator, recoiling from unpopularity and tough decisions. His tenure is health was renowned for establishing consultation to long finger controversies. In Education and Enterprise his focus was on good news announcements for teachers and new industries. The sunny pastures of Iveagh House have cosseted him away from toxic economic manure. He basked in the reflected glory of successful Lisbon II referendum. Cowen is blamed for the first failure. The cute Corkman can rely on his Munster base as a platform to hope for a return of the halcyon days of Jack Lynch on Leeside. Martin is likely to hide in the long grass than overtly challenge Cowen.

DERMOT AHERN puts forward a tough guy image in Justice with a fearless pursuit of head shop owners and gang land criminals. Without a natural support base in the party, he needs a rallying point to elicit support. The prize is unlikely to fall into his lap unless he goes after it. He lacks popularity among the backbenchers. Any threat from him is somewhat illusory.

An emerging possibility is Mary Hanafin. Her demotion from Welfare to Arts, Sport & Tourism follows on previous downgrading from Education. Cowen apparently dislikes her. Hanafin’s Dun Laoghaire base gives her east coast urban appeal, in strong contrast with Cowen’s Dublin disconnect. The novelty of being the first female Taoiseach and the party pedigree through her father, the former Senator, Des Hanafin from Tipperary, are added bonuses.

The elephant in the room is the potential candidature of Brian Lenihan. As Minister for Finance only since the economic crisis erupted, he has escaped the odium of the boom-to-bust brigade under Bertie. His skilful spinning of his brief has won plaudits from all sides. Lenihan represents FF family heritage, Dublin, modernity and potentially the new Fianna Fáil. The imponderable relates to the uncertainty of his health. If he faces cancer down, his fortitude will be seen in heroic terms.

John Bruton once described Fine Gael parliamentarians as akin to RGDATA – a loose association of self-employed grocers. The Fianna Fáil brand is closer knit – a Londis, Gala or Centra. Loyalty is as loyalty does. Backbenchers are facing extinction. Some have little to lose in a putsch, new leader and fresh mandate. With one bound, they may seek to escape execution.