Be sure of two things: Brown will lose and Tories will win most seats

DURING our last general election in 2007, my occupation was bookmaking. Our firm pioneered betting markets for every candidate and constituency.

Virtually every bet struck in the last three days of the campaign won. The moral of the story was we should have stopped betting four days before voting.

Today is polling day in Britain. It’s now possible to make reasonable predictions about the outcome. I believe history will be made, with Labour being ousted from government. The daily blizzard of opinion polls currently indicates: Conservatives 35%-38%, Liberal Democrats 26%-29% and Labour hovering around 25%. Converting these popular indications of support into Westminster seats cannot be done on the basis of a slide rule. The regional disparities are acute. The Tories’ inability to register in Scotland and Wales understates their strength in England.