Be sure of two things: Brown will lose and Tories will win most seats

DURING our last general election in 2007, my occupation was bookmaking. Our firm pioneered betting markets for every candidate and constituency.

Virtually every bet struck in the last three days of the campaign won. The moral of the story was we should have stopped betting four days before voting.

Today is polling day in Britain. It’s now possible to make reasonable predictions about the outcome. I believe history will be made, with Labour being ousted from government. The daily blizzard of opinion polls currently indicates: Conservatives 35%-38%, Liberal Democrats 26%-29% and Labour hovering around 25%. Converting these popular indications of support into Westminster seats cannot be done on the basis of a slide rule. The regional disparities are acute. The Tories’ inability to register in Scotland and Wales understates their strength in England.

The ratio of votes to seats is skewed because of the first-past-the-post system. Seats can be won with 35% of the vote, if two opponents are equally matched with 30% of the vote and the balance fragmented across remaining candidates.

British opinion polls have proven an unreliable guide to the composition of the House of Commons. They don’t tell us about turnout or undecided voters. The key issue is who will abstain. This marginal factor can prove decisive. Polls often overstate the Lib Dems actual vote. People don’t admit to pollsters they’ll vote Tory or Labour. Even exit polls have been misleading. I don’t think the polls have fully picked up the key trend in this campaign – against Labour. This benefits completely different parties in various areas of the country.

Pundits are now predicting the following likely seat range scenarios (out of a total of 650 seats): Conservatives, 275-325; Labour, 210-240, and the Liberal Democrats (currently with 62 MPs), 90-120.

The net question is: can the Conservatives convert less than 40% of the vote into 50% of the seats by reaching the magic figure of 326 to secure a majority. For the past two years they have been targeting a ground war in 100 key marginal Labour seats in the north west and midlands, as well as 20 Liberal seats in the south and around London. Many English Labour seats, won back in 1997, are taken as an automatic win for them.

The campaign itself had a number of notable features. The three-party leader TV debates were informative, impartially conducted, predictable and gaffe-free – an overdue innovation that will stay. The surprise was the public response. The media focus and public reaction treated them like X Factor reality shows, concentrating on style over substance.

Nick Clegg’s sex appeal, Cameron’s sweaty chin and Brown’s dour lack of charisma were the talking points. The three-way format and Clegg’s performance gave his party the biggest boost. His newness gave him an Obamaesque appeal to floating and young voters – the Lib Dems can’t be blamed for anything and therefore best resonate with the mantra of ‘change’.

After three terms, voters want Labour out. They especially want Gordon Brown toppled. The message for Irish politics is that the strongest motivation of the electorate is who they are voting against.

The public mood is so anti-politician, arising out of MPs’ expense scandals, that both traditional big parties are vulnerable. The new Liberal leader has waltzed through this chasm of negativity to present himself and his party as the new dawn.

Like all new political incarnations, it will be short-lived, in or out of office. Messiahs transpire to have feet of clay in democracies.

The big issues have been the economy, spending cuts and immigration. The debate has been almost surreal. Britain’s public finances are in rag order. Their budget deficit this year is £163bn. They’ve had the largest rate of increase in public expenditure of all 28 OECD states over the past 13 years. Their economy recorded growth this year of 0.2% of GNP. Brown and his chancellor of the exchequer, Alistair Darling, have cushioned their public from the recession by pumping in cash, with a mega stimulus package. The Whitehall mandarins are exasperated and will not delay to administer horrendous cutbacks.

Mervyn King, Bank of England governor, has warned of the worst hairshirt austerity and consequent political unpopularity since 1945. These realities have been concealed or minimised by all parties. The cutbacks set out by each party have been superficial and minuscule. Labour (12%), Tories (20%) and Lib Dems (25%) have only set out a tiny proportion of what is fiscally required.

Specifics have been limited to identifying inefficiencies and waste – expect the mother and father of all emergency budgets from the new administration.

The other significant issue has been the latent one of immigration. The Lib Dems have promised an amnesty to all illegal immigrants who have resided in Britain for 10 years. The alleged gaffe of the campaign, Gordon Brown’s ‘bigotgate’ with Gillian Duffy in Rochdale, was about working class attitudes to east European and other immigrants. Politicians are in denial about the toxicity of this issue among the urban working class. This is grist to the mill for UKIP and BNP, who have targeted a ‘rights for whites’ campaign. The Tories have limited traction in these constituencies. If Labour and Brown disconnect with this heartland they will have a disastrous night, much worse than Michael Foot’s 1983 outcome.

THE post-election scenario is intriguing, with the prospect of a hung parliament. The Tories will be significantly stronger, Labour considerably diminished. Expect big names like Jacqui Smith and Charles Clarke to be casualties. The unanswered question is whether David Cameron can seal the deal by being close enough to a working majority or form a minority government.

Even if the Lib Dems hold the balance of power, they will struggle to construct a Lib/Lab government because of the antipathy to Labour. A leadership change in Labour, with the rapid exit of Brown within days, won’t enhance this prospect.

Expect a medium-term battle royale between Ed Balls, perhaps both David and Edward Miliband, and a hard left candidate. Labour needs a period in opposition to regroup internally. They have a reasonable expectation of huge unpopularity arising out of Conservative budgetary attrition. Their period out of office may not be prolonged. This could be an election to lose.

For the first time in living memory there are prospects of post-election horse trading. MPs from the Welsh and Scottish nationalists, and Northern Ireland, will be in the frame for sweetheart deals.

Tories will not want to concede electoral reform through proportional representation. Single-seat PR is not in their long-term interest. Possible permutations are too numerous to predict. Uncertainty and political instability may result in a further election within a few years.

Conversely, I am certain as to my investment advice: assemble your savings and bet on the Conservatives to win the most seats at 1/9 (1/6 odds have been taken over the past week). This provides a tax-free overnight return of 11.1% on your capital. Beats the maximum annual deposit rate return of 3.2%. Any price is a good price on this inevitability tonight.