Assembly deadlocked - Agreement helps sustain divisions

AT lunchtime yesterday, Sinn Féin announced that talks to save the North’s power-sharing Assembly have ended and the basis for a deal now exists.

At the time of writing, despite more than two weeks of high drama and top-level massaging, it was uncertain if this conclusion might be shared by the Democratic Unionist Party, the other half of the two-party ding dong that has dominated politics in the North since the Belfast Agreement was signed 12 years ago.

The protagonists are – were, hopefully – deadlocked on transferring policing and justice powers from Westminster to Stormont and on parades.

It is disappointing that, after such a very long time, those two parties have not devised a process to reach agreement in a reasonable timeframe, without the intervention of the Taoiseach, the British Prime Minister or the occasional White House envoy.

These politics of the impasse, the deadlock default, are rooted in arrangements that now seem bizarre but when they were put in place they were a welcome change from the terror that cost so many lives.

This formula was reached to prevent a majority take-all system returning, as was the case from 1920 to 1972 when the unionist majority so abused their mandate. Under this system the votes of those who have not registered as either unionist or nationalist do not count when it comes to deciding if cross-community consent has been secured. This represents a barrier to moderation as there is a systemic disincentive to parties that want to bury the hatreds of the past.

It may be time to ask whether the structures established on Good Friday 1998, and enhanced by the St Andrew’s agreement of 2006, will ever work.

It is questionable if these arrangements can shape a democratic society or if the agreement is an obstacle to that objective. The current arrangement appears to sustain the very divisions that led to its establishment.

These divisions will do nothing to avert the deepening economic challenge facing the North, indeed they may make an effective response all the more difficult.

The North is dependent on the British exchequer as some 32% of its workforce is employed in the public sector. This requires an annual net transfer of €18.3 billion from Britain. Britain’s deficit is 13% of its GDP, so that is unsustainable. There will be a general election within months and significant cuts in public spending will ensue. Surely these are the issues that should dominate the work of the Assembly rather than the age-old pull-and-drag about parades and policing?

Next week the world will mark the 20th anniversary of Nelson Mandela’s release from prison. Within five years, and despite tremendous opposition from his ANC supporters, he went to Ellis Park, the high altar of the culture that had imprisoned him and killed many of his colleagues. He went to support the Springboks in the World Cup final because he realised that only through unity could South Africa move on from its awful past.

What is so difficult about learning that simple but powerful lesson?