With Thailand on the edge, there is one man who could yet save the nation

WITH his slim features, impeccable manners and winning smile, 44-year-old Abhisit Vejjajiva appeared like a boy sent to do a man’s job. The Thai prime minister was passing through Europe last month trying to reassure international investors and I was asked along to hear him speak.

After the formalities, he mingled and introduced himself. I made the right noises about his speech and he gave me another of his smiles and a wai, the traditional Thai bow accompanied by a pressing together of the palms. This week, with Bangkok erupting, we have an opportunity to judge how far charm will get “Veggie”, as he is known to those of his friends who are unable to pronounce his surname.

His long-term prospects might appear dim. He, however, is not. Born in Newcastle-upon-Tyne of all places, his parents sent him to Eton, the grandest of the English boarding schools. Unlike some of his contemporaries, though, he worked hard and progressed on to Oxford where he gained a first-class degree. What use is all that refinement and intellect, though, when he is up against a consummate street-fighter like the exiled former PM, Thaksin Shinawatra? Thaksin is best known here as the one-time owner of Manchester City football club but in middle-class Thai circles his name is a byword for questionable business ethics and rotten human rights record.

Vejjajiva might look as though he is not long out of short pants but he is no political virgin, having first entered the Thai parliament 17 years ago. He was long spoken of as a future national leader and looked likely one day to achieve his potential, having secured the leadership of the Liberal Democrat party in 2005.

Few expected, though, that Vejjajiva would take the reins of government as soon as last December. His party had, after all, turned in a creditable performance in the general election a year earlier but were still six points behind the successors to Thaksin’s populist Thais Love Thais party.

Vejjajiva only came into office following the last bout of angry street politics and after a minor party had been persuaded to swap coalition partners in return for some plum ministerial jobs. The previous prime minister, a Thaksin stooge, had — somewhat farcically — been forced out after accepting payments for appearing on a TV cookery show. It was a grubby period to say the least and Thaksin’s fanatical supporters want revenge — and their man reinstalled if at all possible.

At the time of writing, two pro-Thaksin demonstrators had been killed but Bangkok was returning to some kind of normality – for now. The situation is still in flux, however, and few believe Thaksin’s red-shirted followers will accept defeat meekly. If and when they regroup will another quasi-coup see yet another PM deposed? Thailand has got through four of them (plus a caretaker) in the last 18 months.

Looking ahead, will Thailand recover its reputation as a rare democracy in the region and as a sublime holiday destination, notwithstanding the odd child sex scandal? The dog that hasn’t barked lately is the king. He rejoices in the full title Phrabat Somdet Phra Paramintharamaha Bhumibol Adulyadej Mahitalathibet Ramathibodi Chakkrinaruebodin Sayamminthrathirat Borommanatthabophit — roughly translated as “the greatest” — but goes by the name Bhumibol for short.

It is a cliché to say the Thai king is revered, but it does seem to be the case. The world’s longest-serving monarch, he came to the throne at the tender age of 18 after the unexplained shooting of his brother. Growing up mostly in Switzerland, Bhumibol had little or no preparation. During more than six decades on the Chakri throne, he has witnessed nearly 20 military coups and been served by even more different prime ministers. He might be excused a feeling of déjà vu about this week’s events. All the political volatility has not acted as a brake on Thailand economically, however. Bhumibol’s nation of 65 million people has been transformed from one that relied upon subsistence farming to an emerging Asian powerhouse — in spite of the politicians’ best efforts, perhaps.

As consumerism has taken hold, you might have expected the Thai monarchy to have lost some of its mystique. Elsewhere in the world, kings and queens might increasingly inspire indifference. Thailand is different. The king’s stature in the eyes of ordinary Thais has only grown over the years.

Perhaps it is because social scientists cannot bear to see a trend line not being followed that King Bhumibol has come in for criticism, not least because he is protected by fierce lèse-majesté laws limiting all criticism of the royal house.

On the rare occasions when he intervenes in politics, it is usually to prevent mass bloodshed. His people’s response, especially in rural areas, would make European royals blush. Thai villagers literally prostrate themselves in his presence, laying down handkerchiefs for him to walk on which are then preserved as cherishedmementos. For Thais, their king represents continuity and stability in a turbulent portion of the globe. Thailand’s neighbours have had a sorry time in those last six decades. Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar (Burma) have all experienced scarcely imaginable horrors. Their civil wars may be over, but all those states remain much poorer and less free than Thailand.

THAILAND was spared carnage largely because it was the only country in the region to escape colonisation. One king after another brilliantly played Britain and France off against each other until both settled for trade access without political control. Those skills have preserved the monarchy ever since. In 1932 a military coup overturned the absolute monarchy, turning it into a constitutional one.

Bhumibol has seen the politicians come and go: uniformed tyrants, land-grabbing generals and some decent democrats too. The 1970s and 1980s saw a tragicomic succession of coups and counter-coups and brief respites of civilian rule. Thailand’s darkest day came in May 1992, when 50 student protesters against the military ruler were killed by troops. The king summoned the prime minister to the royal palace and, live on television, ordered him to approach the throne on his knees. Utterly humiliated, the general’s iron rule was over. Civilians rule has (mostly) been the norm since.

The monarch is, of course, ageing and Thais will have to learn to live without “Father”, as he is known. At the age of 82, can he pull off one more peace process before he hands over to his less well regarded son? Thaksin and his supporters will not be easily appeased. Vejjajiva, in turn, is respected and seems to have the army on side but does not command the same adulation. A multi-billionaire, Thaksin does, however, is popular in rural areas, having introduced cheap healthcare and micro-credit schemes.

Aside from a small Muslim insurgency in the south, Thailand is a relatively homogenous society.

Some great issues are at stake, but what it means to be Thai is not among them. Tourists, investors and, more importantly, the Thais themselves fervently hope a lasting political consensus can be found — and quickly.