Live Register figures - Ominous trend needs reversal

The latest seasonally adjusted figure for the live register of unemployed, published by the Central Statistics Office, jumped by 15,800 in October.

The unemployment figure has therefore risen by 60%, with increases in nine of the 10 months so far in 2008.

The figures betray an ominous trend with frightening implications for many people. The total of 260,300 unemployed has exceeded a quarter of a million for the first time in 11 years.

Males account for more than 70% of the increase, which largely reflects the downturn in the construction industry. But the slowdown is across the boards. Retail sales have declined by 7% since the end of 2007 and the rise in unemployment will inevitably have a further impact on consumer spending. Most countries outside the eurozone recognise the current economic decline as the worst in modern times. The rise in unemployment in this country is the biggest numerical jump ever. In percentage terms the 6.1% increase is the second largest leap ever, exceeded only by the unemployment jump in January 1975. That was at the height of the coalition headed by Liam Cosgrave, who was much maligned as “Minister for Hardship” while his finance minister Richie Ryan was ridiculed as “Richie Ruin”.

The last time the live register exceeded 260,000 was in March 1997 and there is no reason for optimism about improved employment prospects in the coming year. It seems to be only a question of when the unemployment rate will break through the 300,000 barrier.

There are confident predictions that unemployment will rise to 8.5% by October of next year. In the circumstances, the opposition is naturally highlighting statistics that do not reflect well on the Government. That is normal politics. About 70,000 people have lost their jobs since Brian Cowen became Taoiseach, according to Leo Varadkar, the Fine Gael spokesman on enterprise. The Government’s target of a 5.7% average rate of unemployment for the current year has already been hopelessly exceeded. The Government must act, but the current obsession with stabilising the public finances is unlikely to help to reverse the decline.

The increase in unemployment has been compounded by the exchequer figures released earlier this week. Those showed a shortfall of €4 billion in the expected tax take by the end of October. As a result the arithmetic of the recent budget is coming in for further questioning, on top of the highly visible triple U-turn.

The current pain is being spread across the private sector, while little has been done in the public sector to rectify the situation. There will have to be significant reform in the administrative grades in the public service. The Government has been accused of doing nothing to address the unemployment issue in the recent budget.

It is imperative that measures should be implemented to provide sufficient impetus to boost employment.