Ahern leadership - How long can FF afford to stay loyal?

AS THE Taoiseach faces a death by a thousand cuts, he can take some consolation in the fact that he cannot have too many more to endure.

However, we cannot take any consolation in the fact that our country is being led by a man whose popularity and credibility threatens to plummet below the point which guarantees the moral authority required to be an effective leader.

The man who was once a most popular leader and individual is utterly undermined by his own ambiguity at the Mahon Tribunal — only one in seven of the people surveyed by The Irish Times believe that he has given the full picture regarding his finances to the Mahon Tribunal.

And, in what would long ago have proven a killer blow in a grown-up democracy, he has been unable to produce a tax clearance certificate to show that he doesn’t owe tax from the time he was our minister for finance.

The unacceptable efforts by his ministers to undermine the tribunal have, ironically but thankfully, had the opposite affect to that which was intended — they have enhanced the standing of the tribunal but further eroded that of the Taoiseach.

Mr Ahern is no longer a man who can concentrate on the challenges of leadership or shape a vision that might advance our country and inspire our children to be better citizens. He is too distracted and entangled in a rear-guard action, fighting for his political survival.

As the traumatic events in the world markets have underlined in recent days, there are many problems more pressing for a national leader than an investigation into personal finances.

The latest poll, though not the “only poll that matters”, puts him at 40%, down 3%. This is a point behind Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny who fell to 41%. This is the first time since Mr Kenny assumed the leadership of Fine Gael that his personal popularity rating has been greater than that of Mr Ahern.

It is not difficult to imagine that if Mr Kenny was nearly as charismatic as, say a Bill Clinton, or as aggressive as other opposition leaders might be in his position, that this point would have been passed long ago and that the gap would be much wider.

Neither is it difficult to imagine what would be expected of Mr Ahern in a different political culture, a point so clearly illustrated earlier this week when British cabinet member Peter Hain had to resign after a police investigation into the funding of his campaign to become deputy leader of the Labour party was announced.

The charges facing Mr Hain are based on the fact that he accepted undeclared donations to fund his election campaign; dig-outs and whip arounds in another man’s language.

Fianna Fáil can take consolation in the fact that the number of people who say they would vote for it if an election was called has increased by 1%.

Tánaiste Brian Cowen can be equally pleased, as his rating has increased by 3%, putting him at 52%.

The big question for the party and for Mr Cowen is how long can they continue to support Mr Ahern if they are to ensure that these figures do not deteriorate.

Mr Cowen has always emphasised his belief in the importance of loyalty in the political system. This admirable trait will soon face its sternest test yet.

How long more can he remain loyal to his leader without being disloyal to his party?