Cowen succession is not in doubt, but he needs to learn to take risks

ON THE first Wednesday of December, Brian Cowen will deliver his fourth, and possibly last, budget as Minister for Finance. He appears closer than ever to taking over from Bertie Ahern as leader of Fianna Fáil, and then as taoiseach, and likely before this time next year.

This places him in an interesting dilemma. To confirm his popularity with Fianna Fáil backbenchers and other ministers, he must not introduce spending cuts so draconian as to cause them political headaches, but, to prove his credentials as a future taoiseach, he must protect the economy at a difficult juncture.

There is little doubt that Cowen is a skilled party politician and that, even without Ahern’s controversially timed, post-election endorsement, is best placed to succeed Ahern. By showing loyalty to Ahern at all times, he has put party needs ahead of personal ambition. That modesty is appreciated and, paradoxically, helps him towards his eventual goal.

He has galvanised support for Ahern and Fianna Fáil at the most important times, especially when the party leader was floundering in the early days of the general election campaign. Cowen, more than Ahern, is credited by many within Fianna Fáil for stiffening its resolve and giving it the confidence for the successful final push. Ahern’s personal popularity may have tipped the floating voter towards returning Fianna Fáil to power, but Cowen’s bullish pre-election public performances were crucial.

Since the election, Cowen has come to Ahern’s side loyally on two notable occasions. Firstly, in a “summer school” special when he denounced the dastardly media and its forensic examination of Ahern’s finances; secondly, in the Dáil last month, on its return, during the debate on a no-confidence-in-the-Taoiseach motion. Cowen’s robust defence of his leader cheered Fianna Fáil more because of the strength of character it showed in the heir apparent than the sincerity of his support.

Cowen is popular with the parliamentary party, because he drinks and eats with them in the Dáil bar and restaurant and is great company, being a talented mimic and an acerbic wit. He excels also in that Fianna Fáil thing of attacking its critics loudly and aggressively. Little commented upon — during the furore about Willie O’Dea’s recent pub incident in Limerick — was the presence of Cowen in O’Dea’s company a few hours earlier. O’Dea has been comical in his obsequiousness towards Ahern in recent weeks, following his Shannon blundering, so much so that it has been potentially damaging. Other ministers, such as Dermot Ahern and Noel Dempsey, have been quick to say it is not in the Taoiseach’s gift to nominate his successor, betraying their own ambitions.

Is it possible that Cowen is looking to gain support from other government ministers for the inevitable leadership contest? If so, then his willingness to confront excessive government spending in the combined budget-and-government spending estimates on December 5 should be doubted. Charlie McCreevy’s popularity within Fianna Fáil plummeted after the 2002 budget when, as Minister for Finance, he tried to rein in excessive spending. Cowen has presided over a rapidly deteriorating exchequer this year, but has shown little to suggest he will act toughly on overspending. He allowed for a 13% increase in spending this year, following on other years of unwise, excessive public spending, even though many advised, late last year, that the property boom would end, and, with it, much of the Government’s tax revenues would come under pressure. He is now suffering the consequences.

Cowen will spend little or no time costing promised income tax cuts for his budget in December. He is a committed tax-and-spend merchant. Pressed before the election as to his priorities, if and when his economic forecasts were proven excessively optimistic, Cowen admitted that funding the National Development Plan was foremost in his mind and that tax cuts would only follow if more tax money became available. He does not subscribe to the theory that tax cuts can raise State revenue by stimulating trade, as well as allowing people to keep more of their money to spend or invest. Given the massive slowdown in the construction sector, the international banking crisis, and a much-larger-than-expected exchequer deficit this year, it is possible that Cowen may opt for some tax increases or will refuse to index link credits and bands, thus introducing increases by stealth.

This is the last thing hard-pressed individuals need and any loss of confidence could exacerbate the slowdown in the economy. But Cowen, a former solicitor, is not the financially imaginative type that his predecessor, McCreevy, a former accountant, was. Cowen appears in thrall to his department officials, a conservative bunch who do not see the merit in tax cuts.

Cowen does not appear to be a man with original ideas. Worse, he seems to be under the control of Ahern, who appointed him precisely because he is not the independent-minded free spirit that the politically troublesome McCreevy was.

Evidence of this is provided by the stamp duty furore, prior to the election. Ahern buckled to a campaign led by the Sunday Independent and overruled his minister, who did not want to do anything, in an attempt to sway the market. Cowen, who apparently does not see the inequities in the present system, eventually promised measures to remove the burden for first-time buyers only. It came too late to restore confidence in a battered market, despite his claims that it would “restore stability and certainty to the market”. It was unfair also to those looking to trade up by making a second or third purchase of a home (as distinct from an investment).

THIS budget will help us to define Cowen. He has held many ministries since he was first appointed by Albert Reynolds in 1992, but what’s surprising is that he is not associated with many personal policy initiatives that would have marked him out as a politician of distinction.

After impressing as minister for labour, and then communications, in the early stages of his career, he ducked every challenge posed by the Department of Health, in case they proved to be political landmines. He may have been Minister for Foreign Affairs at crucial times during the Northern peace process, but it is Ahern’s claimed 40 hours per week work schedule on that issue alone that makes people credit him with the necessary breakthroughs.

A cowardly or ill-judged budget is not going to ruin Cowen’s chances of taking over as Fianna Fáil leader, but that is not necessarily the moot point. Cowen is not a man who takes risks. That is unfortunate. If Cowen is to be a successful leader of Fianna Fáil — defined by leading the party to the winning of enough seats to continue in government — he needs to widen his appeal beyond that of Fianna Fáil diehards. He needs to show more than he has to date if he is to attract floating or non-Fianna Fáil voters and his best chance is to show himself as an imaginative and innovative Minister for Finance. Maybe he’ll surprise us all in the first week of December.

* The Last Word with Matt Cooper is broadcast on 100-102 Today FM, Monday to Friday, 4.30pm to 7pm. He is also presenting TV3’s live semi-final coverage of the Rugby World Cup this Saturday and Sunday evenings at 7.30pm.