Cowen succession is not in doubt, but he needs to learn to take risks

ON THE first Wednesday of December, Brian Cowen will deliver his fourth, and possibly last, budget as Minister for Finance. He appears closer than ever to taking over from Bertie Ahern as leader of Fianna Fáil, and then as taoiseach, and likely before this time next year.

This places him in an interesting dilemma. To confirm his popularity with Fianna Fáil backbenchers and other ministers, he must not introduce spending cuts so draconian as to cause them political headaches, but, to prove his credentials as a future taoiseach, he must protect the economy at a difficult juncture.

There is little doubt that Cowen is a skilled party politician and that, even without Ahern’s controversially timed, post-election endorsement, is best placed to succeed Ahern. By showing loyalty to Ahern at all times, he has put party needs ahead of personal ambition. That modesty is appreciated and, paradoxically, helps him towards his eventual goal.