Irish Examiner poll - Election still wide open as FF takes a hit

TAOISEACH Bertie Ahern will derive some small comfort from today’s Irish Examiner opinion poll showing Fianna Fáil less damaged than expected, even though the party is continuing to slide as support for Fine Gael and Labour grows.

In the first opinion poll since the General Election was called, the survey, conducted for the Irish Examiner last Wednesday and Tuesday by Lansdowne Research, follows the re-kindling of the Bertiegate factor when the Fianna Fáil campaign was visibly unravelling.

However, it preceded the launch of the party’s manifesto where an embattled Taoiseach faced a grilling about the controversial purchase of his home in the 1990s.

How the problems besetting the Taoiseach over his finances will affect the vote remains a matter of considerable speculation. For now, the poll results show that he has a 56% satisfaction rating, compared with Labour leader Pat Rabbitte (48%) and Fine Gael’s Enda Kenny (42%). Within the party faithful, Mr Ahern’s satisfaction rating remains extremely high.

Measured against last September’s Irish Examiner poll, the results show Fianna Fáil down 2% at 37%; Fine Gael up 2% at 26%; Labour up 3% at 13%; Sinn Féin at 8%, down 1%; the Green Party static on 6%; the PDs down a whopping 4% to 2%; and Independents up 3% at 9%.

The poll underlines the political reality that if the country’s biggest party is to form the next government it will have to enter coalition with either Labour, the Greens, Sinn Féin, or Independents.

On a 1 to 10 rating, a coalition of Labour and Fine Gael is seen as most effective (5.4); they are just ahead of the Fianna Fáil-PD partnership (5.2). Fine Gael, Labour and the Greens are on the same rating as a Fianna Fáil-Labour combination (5).

The coalition partnerships deemed least effective were: Fianna Fáil-Independents (4.5); Fianna Fáil — Greens (4.2) and Fianna Fáil-Sinn Féin (4). If Fianna Fáil were to stick with the dwindling PDs, they would match the combined strength of Fine Gael and Labour.

In a further blow to the outgoing administration, more people (32%) are now dissatisfied with the Government than last September (28%).

Meanwhile, with Fianna Fáil now blaming a “carefully orchestrated campaign” of leaking Mahon Tribunal documents for the “mayhem and confusion” of the election race, there is a strong whiff of panic about the party’s strategy of shooting the messenger.

Whatever uncertainty is gripping voters stems directly from the Taoiseach’s reluctance to brief the public on the controversy surrounding the purchase of his home in the 1990’s.

He has been extremely slow to answer legitimate questions about a sum of £30,000 which he received from Manchester businessman Micheál Wall.

What we have heard from Mr Ahern is that the money belonged to Mr Wall and was used to refurbish a three-year-old house which the Taoiseach had first rented and later purchased. The renovations were overseen by Celia Larkin, Mr Ahern’s ex-partner.

It remains to be seen whether as a result of the drip-by-drip release of stories relating to the finance controversy, the Taoiseach will now suffer death by a thousand cuts.

With 18 days to the General Election and with a hung Dáil in prospect, the public interest demands that the facts be put on the table. Otherwise, the uncertainty and confusion will persist.

Meanwhile, the opposition parties fear coverage of the Bertiegate factor will deflect voter attention from such burning issues as health, housing, crime, global warming and water pollution.

Though bloodied and battered, as the Irish Examiner poll indicates, it is premature to write off Fianna Fáil.

The results show this election is still wide open.