Sarkozy faces a battle Royal in election fought on chic criteria

Tomorrow sees the start of the most fascinating French presidential election in decades, reports Europe Correspondent, Ann Cahill.

“WHO will win? That is a question for the bookies” — that was the response from many French pundits when asked for their forecast for the first round in the French Presidential elections tomorrow.

Billed as one of the most fascinating elections in decades, more than a third of the electorate admit to being undecided about which candidate to vote for.

Most expect right-wing candidate Nicholas Sarkozy to win — but they do not want him to — and this is confusing the issue.

Everyone agrees France needs someone who will make changes, but the confusion about what kind of change is needed is reflected in the three leading contenders among a field of 12 candidates.

As a result, much of the electioneering both for party nominations and for the vote itself has been built around a campaign of style and personality, with the main candidates easily stereotyped.

Probable front-runner Sarkozy is seen as having a typical small man’s complex, insisting his wife wears low heeled shoes and standing on his tiptoes when photographed speaking to a particularly tall Dutch minister.

His style was particularly testosterone-driven, describing rioting youths in deprived city suburbs as riff-raff who should be put down.

It gained him notoriety at an early stage but in the past few months he has been trying to soften this image.

His main rival, Ségolène Royal, has tried hard to break the mould of traditional campaigning for the presidency.

She began work almost two years ago in meetings in town halls and school rooms, engaging parents in discussion and promising to include their wishes in her 100-point election programme.

Being able to talk to and even shake hands with a presidential candidate was a new experience for French people, for whom the position is closer to that of a monarch than the head of a modern democracy.

Royal’s former ministerial posts, dealing with the environment, children and handicapped, prepared her well for responding to the everyday problems of the populace but left her looking gauche when questioned on issues of foreign policy.

She has brushed up her knowledge in this area and has become even more chic in appearance in recent months, looking every inch a suitable symbol for France.

Just when it looked like a clear-cut battle between Ms Royal of the Socialist left and Mr Sarkozy of the right, enter François Bayrou of the centre-right, a classics scholar who milks cows and breeds horses. His rapid rise to a respectable 18% in the polls was something of a shock and sent Mr Sarkozy in search of votes from outside his normal constituency.

The Socialists have a history of disagreeing and this cost them the last presidential election, when too few of them turned out to vote for Lionel Jospin and allowed National Front leader Jean Marie Le Pen to make it to the second round.

This time 78-year-old Mr Le Pen has been coming a close fourth in the polls to Mr Bayrou and pundits point out that polls usually underestimate his support.

There are suspicions that this time, rather than failing to turn out, the Socialists that cannot bring themselves to vote for Ms Royal could cast their ballot for Mr Bayrou to keep out Mr Sarkozy.

Ms Royal has so far rejected a plea for her to form a partnership with Mr Bayrou. Some of her supporters are afraid the result of tomorrow’s vote will see the run-off on May 6 between Mr Bayrou and Mr Sarkozy give the former a decent chance of winning.