Why the PDs can get more comfort from statistics than opinion polls

IN the recent TNS/MRBI survey, the PDs polled 1%.

In the 2002 election, 76% of the population was eligible to vote (2,994,409), and nearly 63% of those who had a vote used it (1,878,393).

In 2007, projecting the same ratios for the electorate (76%) and turnout (63%), would produce the following outcome:

Population: 4,234,925.

Electorate: 3,218,543.

Turnout: 2,027,682 (63%).

Applying the results of the poll would mean that 1% = 20,277 votes.

These are first preference votes (FPV) as this is all that a poll can indicate.

In 2002, the PD’s FPV was 73,628 votes, or 3.96%.

In 2007, the party will field about 20 candidates, including such high-profile and experienced campaigners as Michael McDowell, Mary Harney, Liz O’Donnell, Tom Parlon and Colm O’Gorman. If the poll results are true this would mean each candidate would get an average of 1,000 votes and that 53,000 people would abandon the party at a time of unprecedented economic success, for which I feel we are reasonably entitled to claim at least a modest share of the credit.

This is not credible given the fact that Mary Harney, Michael McDowell and Tom Parlon alone received 20,877 FPVs between them in 2002, or 600 votes more that the 1% poll result.

Using the 2002 ratios would produce 155,121 FPVs for the PDs, assuming we again won 3.96% of the total vote.

In this regard, statistics, and not polls, are a better indicator of the PD vote.

Edward O’Sullivan

31 Summerstown Grove

Wilton

Cork.