FF will go back to the future
But the point is that you should never underestimate the anorak.
The magic anorak that does a full tour of the country every Thursday and Friday without fail. The anorak that has spent 10 years now in perpetual motion. The anorak that opens a DIY store down in Wexford. The anorak that addresses the Clondalkin chamber of Commerce. The anorak that patrols the mean streets of Moyross.
A good few months ago, I was speaking to one of the backroom people whose job it is to get the Government re-elected.
“The people out there can’t see beyond the man in the anorak,” he said. And then we had BertieGate. We should have known to respect the anorak and its supernatural powers of shielding Bertie from harm.
This is the week in which the election cycle moved into the beginning of the ‘making your mind up’ phase. The Estimates, Budget in December, and the Finance Bill in the New Year will show us how Brian Cowen and Ahern intend to win the election.
How confident are Fianna Fáil about getting re-elected?
Confident enough to let Brian Cowen mumble out the Estimates like he was at confession. Maybe he was trying to lull us all into a sense of complacency before blowing us away with a spectacular Budget on December 6.
Erm, no.
Anyway let us ponder on a Budget-time quote from the anorak: “If there’s one thing Ireland does not need after next summer’s elections, it’s a new and inexperienced Government that is overwhelmed by its task and starts pressing the panic button, destroying all the good work built up for the past 14 years.”
When did Ahern make that speech? Last week? Last month? No, almost five years ago, in December 2001.
Fianna Fáil is striking the exact same chord now as they did then. Obviously, they are going with the theory that if it worked a treat then, it’ll work a treat now. Their spinmeisters pointed out then that Michael Noonan and Ruairi Quinn couldn’t be trusted with running the economy.
The exact same offence is being mounted now against Enda Kenny and Pat Rabbitte. And the words Ahern used about the 2002 Budget (delivered in December 2001) could have been lifted out of Cowen’s estimates speech. Prudent. Caring. Equitable. “Radical social philosophy.”
There is only one difference between 2001 and 2006: Charlie McCreevy. The then Finance Minister delivered his fifth chapter of his first book in that budget. The likes of Sean Healy of CORI were completely out of the picture. It was all about tax and raiding the social insurance fund and taking €700 million out of Central Bank’s reserve to give the middle classes tax breaks and give out enough goodies to win the following election.
McCreevy only got to Chapter Two before he was written out of the series.
With Charlie exiled, the calf was being fatted for the likes of Healy. Suddenly all those meaningless words of Ahern’s from 2001 — caring, prudent and equitable — had meaning.
Fianna Fáil’s strategy going into next year’s election will be exactly the same as five years ago.
They believe they can expose the lack of Government or ministerial experience of the opposition leaders. That ‘forward not back’ argument doesn’t hold much water, logically, but will still manage to take an emotional hold on people’s pockets. There is a ‘credible leader’ hurdle that Kenny and Rabbitte need to overcome.
The big difference between 2001 and 2006 will be the Budget. There will be no big flaithiúil budget that will lurch the economy into tailspin.
When Brian Cowen says discipline and prudence, that’s what Brian Cowen means.
And don’t they have the old trusty anorak to protect them from the elements? It’s good for a few years yet.
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