General Election - Despite polls, it is still all to play for

IF WE can be sure of anything in Irish politics, it is that low standards in high places appear to count for naught when it comes to the acid test of government performance in the eyes of voters.

This phenomenon is mirrored in the latest poll which shows that despite the fact that most people believe Taoiseach Bertie Ahern was wrong to take money from friends and businessmen in the ’90s when he was Minister for Finance, the Government’s fortunes have risen while opposition party ratings have fallen.

It is moot whether this contradiction is attributable to the sophistication of the electorate, acceptance of nod-and-wink politics, or backlash against perceived hounding of Mr Ahern by an opposition which failed to pin him down.

Politics have long been mired in murky dealings with wealthy businessmen. The litany of politicians on the take ranges from disgraced ex-Taoiseach Charles J Haughey, to former minister Ray Burke, Deputy Liam Lawlor, ex-Fine Gael minister Michael Lowry, and a small army of Dublin county councillors.

Illustrating the double standard approach to politics, Mr Lowry romped home as an independent after he was drummed out of Fine Gael.

Apparently, prospective voters are now drawing a distinction between Mr Ahern’s performance as leader of the coalition and the fact that he got over €50,000 from friends and supporters to settle marriage separation legal bills.

Underlining the time-worn principle that voters tend to be motivated by economic considerations rather than ethical questions, it seems the Fianna Fáil-PD arrangement is back in favour.

With a torrent of cash pouring into the Exchequer coffers, Finance Minister Brian Cowen has more money at his disposal than any of his predecessors going into an election.

While Mr Cowen strongly denies any suggestion of buying votes in the run up to next year’s general election, seasoned observers remain sceptical. Time will tell.

As for Mr Ahern’s future, the opinion poll in yesterday’s Sunday Tribune should give him much comfort.

While he claims such polls are merely snap shots in time, he knows they influence voter attitudes.

Unlike Britain, where politicians tend to fall on their swords, the term ‘resign’ does not figure in Fianna Fáil’s political lexicon.

Though Mr Ahern denies any wrong-doing, the majority of voters (55%) said he was wrong to take the money. Yet, an even higher proportion (65%) said the Taoiseach should not resign.

The question being asked is whether this signifies voter subtlety or a woolly approach to ethics and morality in politics?

When quizzed about media criticism of voter support for his Government after the financial scandal, the Taoiseach replied by saying that when the people gave their judgement, it had to be accepted.

While it was good news for the Coalition, the poll was a bad omen for the Fine Gael-Labour partnership. It was also bad news for the man who would be Taoiseach, Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny, whose personal satisfaction rating has fallen while his dissatisfaction rating has risen.

Basking in a warm glow of success after selling the St Andrews deal on the North to Sinn Féin and the DUP, Mr Ahern has evaded the Coalition and been given a reprieve by voters.

Despite everything that has happened, Fianna Fáil and the PDs are back on track with a chance of being re-elected. But with seven months to go, every TD is aware that unforeseen events could transform the political landscape. It is still all to play for.