Irish Examiner poll - Health could be coalition’s Achilles heel

AS the beauty contest for the crucial job of next Taoiseach begins in earnest, today’s Irish Examiner poll provides fascinating insights into how the public regard the two contenders for the highest political office in the land.

Not surprisingly, party supporters favour their own as incumbent Taoiseach Bertie Ahern and Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny gear themselves for next summer’s hustings.

The poll afforded voters a chance to speak their minds on key questions including the trustworthiness of the two men, plus confidence in their ability to do the job, make hard decisions, control crime, guide the economy, manage the healthcare system or provide crisis leadership.

Bidding for three-in-a-row, the Taoiseach predictably comes out stronger in terms of doing the job, making hard decisions and leading in a crisis. In the popular mind, he has proved his colours as a leader.

In this context, Mr Kenny lags behind, no doubt because he is still unproven in leadership terms. Yet, as he offers himself as a credible Taoiseach he performs reasonably well for a man who was given little chance of ever becoming Taoiseach.

Clearly, question marks still hang over the Mayo TD but they are smaller now. Significantly, he is seen by voters as the politician who just might be able to crack the country’s health crisis.

If there is a major blip on the monitor of this Government’s overall performance, it is the health service. This is a recurring theme of the poll and reflects deep-seated public concern over the standard of health care, its cost, its potential for improvement and, even more significantly, the sheer lack of healthcare.

Twelve months after the last Irish Examiner/Lansdowne poll, health and medical costs have overtaken the overall cost of living as the most important national issue for voters with an eye on next summer’s general election.

Politically, the poll is a devastating verdict on Health Minister Mary Harney, with two-thirds of voters lacking confidence in her ability to resolve the on-going crisis. In a searing comment, confidence in her emanates from only 9% of PD voters, 7% of Labour voters, 6% of Fianna Fáil and 4% of Fine Gael supporters.

With the Taoiseach expected to stand down after the next election, voters view Brian Cowen as front-runner in the succession stakes. But while he is the choice of one-in-five electors, his popularity rating of 21% is down from last year’s 25% level.

By far the biggest change is the enhanced popularity of Foreign Affairs Minister Dermot Ahern, who ranks in second place at 13% alongside Enterprise Minister Michael Martin.

In the personality stakes, the Fine Gael leader is seen as more trustworthy than the Taoiseach.

With a little over half expressing confidence in the trustworthiness of both leaders, Mr Kenny is seen as more open while 47% express varying degrees of distrust in Mr Ahern.

Politically, health has been clearly identified as the number one issue. Despite a burgeoning economy, the health crisis could yet prove the Government’s Achilles’ heel.