Census 2006 - Slim chance of boundary overhaul

WITH Ireland’s population now at over 4.2 million, the highest since 1861, it was inevitable debate would be sparked on the need to redraw Dáil constituencies.

While the chances of this happening may be slim, the Government has been forced to seek advice from the Attorney General on the legal implications of the Central Statistics Office (CSO) report which shows one Dáil constituency in breach of the constitutional population guidelines.

Out of 43 constituencies, Dublin West is the only one in breach of the constitutional standard of equal representation, based on the number of persons per TD.

With an election looming next year, party campaigns are now in full swing and nervous politicians have no stomach for change in traditional bailiwicks.

While Labour has called for constituencies to be reviewed, Environment Minister Dick Roche claimed this could not be done on the basis of preliminary results. Rejecting the idea of revising political boundaries, he argued that preliminary census figures have never been used as the basis for redrawing constituencies.

Although final figures are not due until next year, the prospect of a boundary overhaul before the election cannot be dismissed out of hand. The Government has taken the right course by referring this thorny question to the Attorney General.

Arguably, the scenario could be changed dramatically by a constitutional challenge in Dublin West which has the country’s highest number of persons per TD at 30,933, an increase of nearly 27% since 2002.

This is the first constituency to breach the constitutional requirement of having one TD between every 20,000 and 30,000 people in the country. The current average is roughly 25,000 and a variation of just over 5% above or below the norm is generally seen as acceptable.

Providing a wealth of demographic detail, the census report makes fascinating reading. In social terms, it is a mirror image of the rapidly changing face of an increasingly cosmopolitan and pluralist Ireland.

With an annual average expansion of 1.6%, the Republic’s population growth is the highest rate in the EU.

Overall, Ireland has experienced a population increase of 600,000 over the past 10 years. Remarkably, 300,000 of that explosion occurred since 2002.

Reflecting the lop-sided and rudderless nature of the explosion of Dublin and its hinterland, 30% of the overall growth was a direct result of the capital’s unfettered sprawl into Fingal and the neighbouring counties of Meath and Kildare.

There is a nice irony in the fact that Cork city and Limerick city are the only two out of 34 administrative regions to register a fall in population during the 2002-2006 period.

In rugby mythology, that decline will forever be attributed to the huge exodus of fans to Dublin for the Heineken Cup semi-final between Munster and Leinster. But while that unforgettable game was played on the day before the April Census, a CSO spokesman has been quick to pour cold water on this colourful explanation for the statistical decline of Cork and Limerick.

Even Co Leitrim, where the population has been withering for almost 150 years, experienced a 12% growth rate.

The fact that the population of the Republic has doubled since 1961 is due in no small part to the influx of non-nationals to the country. Put at around 400,000, a 10% slice of the population, the arrival of non-nationals was a powerful reflection of Ireland’s burgeoning economy in recent years.

What is worrying is that the flood tide of inward migration is now showing signs of slowing down as the economy begins to cool.