Bertie needs more than the SSIA bonanza to secure another term

IN almost exactly a year’s time — probably on Thursday, May 3, 2007 — the Taoiseach will go into the Dáil, with the permission of the Ceann Comhairle, and say something like this:

“I wish to inform the House as a matter of courtesy that I intend to proceed to Áras an Uachtarán at 9am tomorrow to advise the President, pursuant to Article 13 of the Constitution, to dissolve Dáil Éireann and to summon the incoming Dáil to meet at 10.30am on Thursday, June 14, 2007. I wish those members of the House who are not seeking re-election every success and happiness in the future. I wish all other members well in their endeavours to return to the House. Go n-éirí libh go léir i bhur n-iarrachtaí.”

Now, it’s possible that I have those dates wrong, maybe by as much as a week. But unless there’s some dramatic accident — and that’s always possible — we are either 51 or 52 weeks away from the dissolution of this Dáil and the formal start of a general election campaign. The Taoiseach might surprise us all, and go early — the dates I’m predicting are pretty well the last possible dates he can choose.