The problem is America now feels it has more to fear than fear itself

THE American Embassy held a big party in Dublin’s Mansion House on the night of the last American presidential election in November 2001. There were about 1,200 Irish guests, mainly media and political types from across the spectrum.

The organisers ran a mock presidential election. Each of the guests went into a special polling booth area to mark a mock ballot paper. The result was a lot more decisive than the real presidential election proved to be.

In the USA it took several days of recounts and ultimately a Supreme Court decision to decide the matter between George Bush and Al Gore. In the Mansion House, Gore had a clear victory.

I don't recall the precise figures, but the results went something like this: the Democratic party candidate and outgoing Vice-President Al Gore polled about 80%. The independent Green and consumer rights campaigner Ralph Nader polled some 12%. The Republican party candidate George Bush came third with just 8%. This poll was an early illustration of what Ireland thought of the new US president.

There is something about George Bush that we Irish just don't like. There are a number of reasons for this some of them simplistic but most are complex.

I'm not anti-American; I'm not even anti-Bush. My problem with Bush, and I suspect that of many others in Ireland, is not with his persona but rather with his politics. In fact, it's not even with all of his politics. His vision of 'compassionate conservatism' and his domestic emphasis on education have much to recommend them. However, what disturbs me is that Bush and his advisers feel that because America is now the only world superpower it can, and therefore it will, enforce world order in a manner of its own choosing.

The Irish are in the main well disposed to America. Ties of history, emigration and inward investment bind us as nations. Similar principles of democracy, the rule of law and respect for individual rights and freedoms underpin our political cultures.

Most Irish people have no time for the knee-jerk anti-American mentality lingering since the Cold War and still infecting many of our leftists and the perpetual protest movement. Most Irish people had a lot of time for Clinton's worldview; we were grateful for his contribution to our peace process and charmed by his personality during his two presidential visits here. It seems to me, however, that American politics now is dysfunctional and this is distorting the foreign policymaking of the current US leadership. In my view there are at least three reasons for this.

Firstly, American politics is drowning in money. The political process involves constant campaigning, costly TV advertising and perpetual polling. It is phenomenally expensive. He (or she) who spends wins! In the absence of any kind of state funding of political campaigns this money must be found from the corporate sector and so politicians are involved in full-time fundraising activity.

In July 2001 I was an observer at the Republican convention in Philadelphia which nominated George W Bush. Of the 10,000 voting delegates at the event, at least a quarter were millionaires. In addition the main VIP seating area closest to the stage was reserved for several hundred special guests, each of whom had donated at least $1 million to the Republican party in the previous twelve months. The link between the Republicans and money was paraded and even celebrated. A lot of this was oil and defence industry money.

It is, of course, simplistic to see current American foreign policy as being shaped purely by these campaign donations.

However, along with the "oiligarchy" which currently encircles the Bush White House this political funding is a key factor in a cluster of influences pushing towards a war in Iraq.

America's campaign against Iraq is motivated by concerns for world and American security. However, it also influenced by concerns about energy supply. America relies in the main for its oil imports on Saudi Arabia, which holds about 25% of the world's oil reserves. Since September 11 2001 America has reason to fear political instability in Saudi Arabia.

This endangers America's oil supply and its economy (and ours). Iraq holds 12% of the world's current oils reserves and access to Iraqi oil would do much to counter America's economic insecurity.

A second factor distorting American politics is the increasing influence of religion. Christian religious groups, many of the born-again and hard right variety, exert an increasing influence on the Republican party. The main agenda of these groups is domestic. They are worried, for example, about issues like abortion and schoolroom prayer. However, these voters and their money provide the Republicans with a core constituency which makes the party less dependent on the need for middle ground support.

The third and most significant factor is that American politics is suffering a type of post traumatic stress disorder. America is still grieving en masse. The brutal assault on the American homeland on September 11 2001 has left American politics paranoid and belligerent. America was shaken and dragged into war following the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbour in 1943. The assassination of Kennedy, the Vietnam War and Watergate also had an impact.

However I suspect that when historians look back they will regard the events of September 11 as those which have exerted the biggest influence on subsequent political events. Ironically at the time when it is at its strongest in the world, America feels at its most vulnerable.

This paranoia and vulnerability has undermined the traditional checks and balances at the heart of the American system and means that there is no real opposition to the perceived wisdom of war with Iraq. Fearful of being perceived as 'soft on terror,' or unpatriotic, the Democrats have been politically neutered. Bruised by the setbacks they suffered in the November 2002 mid-term elections, and lacking a national leader of stature, the Democrats are likely to be weak for a while to come.

I know that many Americans living in Ireland will think that an Irish political commentator has a cheek describing American politics as dysfunctional, not least since our own political system needs a lot of improvement. However, we in Ireland have good reason to pay some attention to American political developments.

This week's news is dominated by a war of words within NATO and a battle of wills between 'old' and 'new' Europe.

Even if there isn't another war against Iraq our world has changed and the dynamic of European and international politics is transformed. Countries which would have been expected to line up together are now in dispute. The question for Ireland is where we stand.

Ireland is now entering a decisive phase in its relationship with America. It seems America will go to war with Iraq without a further UN resolution. This brings into sharp focus the issue of American forces and equipment landing at Shannon. We now have to choose between our traditionally strong stance in support of the UN and our ties with the US.

In making that decision we should have some regard to the current condition of American politics.