Apart from the odd spat, FF and the PDs are there for the long haul

ON the night after polling day in the 2002 general election, Bertie Ahern gave the traditional ‘victor’s interview’ to Brian Farrell in RTÉ’s election studio.

At the time the final result in a dozen or so constituencies was still to be declared. However, it was certain that Ahern was going to be re-elected Taoiseach. While he would come close, he was not going to attain an overall FF majority.

One of the inevitable questions which Farrell put to the Taoiseach was with whom he would form his incoming government. In Ahern’s first term as Taoiseach, FF had been in government with the PDs, but had to rely also on support from three independents. Now though, having increased FF’s seat numbers, the Taoiseach had choices.

After an initial fright earlier in the day, both Jackie Healy Rae in Kerry South and Mildred Fox in Wicklow were safely re-elected. Meanwhile Harry Blaney, the third independent who had had an agreement to support the outgoing government, was replaced in Donegal North-East by his nephew, Niall Blaney, from whom it could be assumed similar support would be forthcoming.

In addition, two new ‘Fianna Fáil gene-pool’ independents had been elected for the first time in 2002: Paddy McHugh in Galway East and James Breen in Clare.

However, when being interviewed by Brian Farrell, Ahern was equivocal in ruling out the possibility of a minority government reliant on independents and confirmed that he intended to return to government with the PDs.

This surprised some. There had been no formal pact between the outgoing government parties before the election. In fact during the campaign tensions between them had been intense, what with Michael McDowell’s ‘Ceaucescu era’ comment about the Bertie Bowl and the PDs’ lamp-post posters on the theme of ‘Single party government - no thanks’.

However, there was compelling logic to Ahern’s choice. One of his central achievements during his first term was proving that FF could actually make coalition work. After the stormy collapse of FF’s previous coalitions with Dessie O’Malley’s PDs, and then with Dick Spring’s Labour Party, it was significant that the Ahern-Harney partnership had run a full term. In addition, Ahern would have known that in part because of a pre-election spending splurge, the public finances were going to be tight for the first couple years of his second term. It would be an advantage to have the PD ministers to shore up Charlie McCreevy at the cabinet table as financial readjustments were made.

It would have been foolhardy in an environment of fiscal retention to be beholden to a cluster of independents likely to be very exercised about how cutbacks would affect their own constituencies. However, the other central consideration for Ahern was that both in the short and medium term it would have been politically dangerous to let the PDs cross to the opposition camp.

With both Fine Gael and Labour temporarily leaderless after the election, and a kaleidoscope of small parties and independents now making up the rest of the opposition, leading PD figures like Harney and McDowell would have made a significant impact on the opposition benches.

The re-establishment of the FF-PD government in 2002 did ensure continuity, but the election result also meant there was a significant shift in the balance of power within the coalition. The doubling of the number of Progressive Democrat TDs entitled them to an extra seat at cabinet, but FF’s seat gains meant that Ahern was less dependent on the PDs to make up a Dáil majority. Given that dynamic, it is surprising there have not been even more tensions between the two Government parties since 2002.

There are always some tensions in coalition governments, particularly when the smaller party exercises some leeway to assert its independent identity. The stormiest precedent for this was when Michael McDowell, then an extra parliamentary chairman of the PDs, regularly crossed swords with Albert Reynolds when the latter was finance minister in the PD coalition with Charles Haughey.

THE main sore point in the 1997-’02 administration was the proposal for a National Stadium at Abbotstown. It was always an extravagant idea and was ultimately scuttled by McCreevy on the rock of the financial adjustments required after the election. While the Taoiseach’s nostalgia for the stadium idea is understandable, the fact that it is off the agenda has dramatically assisted the cohesion of his second Government.

During the current Government term it has been entertaining to watch the PD parliamentary party chairman, Tommy Morrissey, trying to do a McDowell Lite. His dramatic outrage over e-voting at his party’s recent annual conference, for example, is particularly absurd. When the key Government decisions about e-voting were made there were two PDs sitting at the cabinet table. Occasionally, Liz O’Donnell also mixes it a bit with criticism of Government policies, although many of her outbursts (particularly one last year on Northern Ireland policy) have had more to do with internal PD rivalries than any tensions between the Government parties.

Another point of tension in the current Government arises from the fact that Mary Harney has taken over the health portfolio. It was always going to be difficult to build a reputation as the champion of long-term reforms for the health service in the short timescale before the next election. Inevitably building such a reputation for Harney requires an explicit or implicit suggestion that the previous minister, Micheál Martin, had been inadequate in the job.

While Harney herself has never said so in public, some of her over-enthusiastic associates have been only too happy to whisper this suggestion into the ears of journalists.

Those tensions are not helped by the fact that it is Martin who has switched to the relatively tranquil waters of Harney’s old Department of Enterprise Trade and Employment.

Unusually, his new department has been centre stage in recent weeks because of the Gama construction controversy. Again over-enthusiastic associates of Martin have been inclined to return the serve by talking off the record about the less than thorough exploration of complaints about that company under Harney’s watch.

However, none of these tensions should give rise to any real concern about the durability of this Government. The logic of FF and the PDs staying in government with each other is as strong now as it was in June 2002. It is still the safest course for stable economic management, even with the new left-wing garb the Taoiseach has donned.

Ahern also knows that a defection by the PDs at this stage would not be in FF’s interest since it might open up a wider range of alternative government scenarios going into the next election.

Meanwhile, Harney and McDowell are busy and happy in their respective portfolios, with much to prove. The recent bout of turbulence over aviation policy should not distract from the reality that this Government is on course for the long haul.