Bertie and Brian: two managers struggling after loss of a key player

I DON’T suppose the Taoiseach is likely to be consulted about whether Brian Kerr should go or stay.

Not formally, anyway, even though there were lots of rumours of Bertie's involvement in trying to sort out the Saipan mess during the last World Cup. And if the FAI are looking for the telephone numbers of Alex Ferguson and Roy Keane, the word is that the Taoiseach has them in his desk drawer.

But I'm sure the Taoiseach must be wondering, in his occasional idle moments, about the similarities between himself and Kerr. Both were chosen to lead a national team in the midst of great adulation. Both had the sort of media relations others only dream about. Both are known for their tactical knowledge and their meticulous preparation.

Both have a proven track record of success. Despite all that, both of these managers have watched their teams under-perform to the point of embarrassment. And the media which had been so friendly to both is now seriously hostile.

As a result, both of them are under serious threat. Brian Kerr, an honourable and decent man who has given everything he's got to try to fashion a winning Irish team, looks (according to the experts) as if he's about to be told he is no longer required in a leadership role.

And how much longer will the Taoiseach reign without any mutterings about his leadership? Many times it's been said that his popularity in the party is based entirely on his popularity in the country. If his approval rating dips, the knives will be out for him. But not until he loses the election.

Well, we're soon going to see if that's right. There is little doubt now but that the opinion polls are going to show a bit of a disaster looming for Fianna Fáil. The debacles of the past few weeks, and the way they have been handled, have undermined public confidence in the party to a huge extent. I would venture to suggest, in fact, that if an election were held in the near future, Fianna Fáil could score a historically bad result. It would be a bit like being beaten by Cyprus at home. The conventional wisdom is that they will come for the leader after the election. If he loses, he's a goner. But it is becoming increasingly likely that they may decide, like Brian Kerr, not to renew his contract in the shorter term. Bertie Ahern is unique among Fianna Fáil leaders because he doesn't have a hard core of people in the party willing to fight for him come what may.

If the polls start to suggest that another leader might be a better bet in the election that is now only 18 months away, don't be surprised if late-night meetings and all sorts of rumblings start to happen. And if a case can be made that another leader would be better, don't be surprised either at how few people within the party will come to the Taoiseach's defence. There are very few members of the cabinet, for example, who owe their elevation to the Taoiseach. Most were there before he became Taoiseach. And there are quite a few in the party who believe they ought to have been in the cabinet, and blame Bertie for the fact that they're not.

They will be perfectly capable of blaming the Taoiseach for the fall in popularity that the party has suffered. Because there's another thing that the Taoiseach and Brian Kerr had in common. When the history of recent soccer events comes to be written, it might well be said that Brian Kerr had one bit of terribly bad luck. If Roy Keane had been in the whole of his health, isn't there at least a possibility that Ireland would be in the play-offs now? And if we went on to qualify through the play-offs with Keane in the team, Brian Kerr would still be the Irish manager in four years.

Bertie Ahern had a great player at his disposal too, his own Roy Keane. But whereas Brian Kerr's destiny might be settled by the misfortune of Roy Keane's damaged metatarsal, Bertie Ahern dropped his match-winner.

He didn't just leave him on the bench in case the team needed a game-breaker at two-nil down, he left him out of the squad entirely.

Yes of course, one of the great attacking midfielders, Charlie McCreevy. He might have got his share of yellow cards over the years because he was never reluctant to go in heavy in the tackle. And there were many who didn't like his style of play, and thought it selfish and bad for the team.

BUT there was no doubt that Charlie McCreevy could take a game by the scruff of the neck. It was certainly the case that the opposition never liked his tactics, and were frequently rattled by the sort of tricks he could come up with.

Maybe I've taken the football metaphor far enough. I never agreed with Charlie McCreevy's philosophy, and always believed it would do damage to any sort of notion of community within Ireland. And indeed it has. But his politics were geared towards winning elections, and he was a master strategist in that area. He single-handedly altered the psychology of taxation as an election issue by insisting on the simple, understandable, and socially unfair approach of cutting tax rates as the only measure of progress. He never stopped thinking about the next election. In his budget speech on December 5, 2001, for example, he announced child benefit increases of more than €30 per child an increase of nearly €150 for a family with four children. These increases, he announced, would be paid the following May but back-dated to April. When thousands of mothers went to collect the new child benefit a few weeks before the 2002 election, they got a huge payout.

McCreevy designed the SSIAs as an election winner, too, and in his design they were seen as capable of carrying the party through two elections the one where they were announced, and the one (in 2007) where they matured. It was an entirely cynical exercise that has diverted hundreds of millions of euro from necessary social investment in the meantime, but it had one purposes and one purpose only: to win votes.

Now Charlie McCreevy is off the pitch. He has been replaced by a minister who is almost certainly more responsible and careful. Brian Cowen is unlikely to do what McCreevy did, in letting public expenditure go through the roof in the run-up to the 2002 election and cutting it right back afterwards. Of course he will want to win the election, but I don't see him being either as clever, or as irresponsible, as McCreevy was.

The dropping of McCreevy was seen as something of a stroke, of course. But the team has played badly ever since. Maybe, just maybe, when political history comes to be written, the dropping of McCreevy will come to be seen as the moment when good luck deserted the team manager.