North’s groundhog politicians must start thinking of tomorrow’s world

THE Northern Ireland peace process is now like Groundhog Day upon Groundhog Day. The scene at Leeds Castle was akin to a repeat of the movie by that name starring Bill Murray.

The movie itself was about one continually repeating day.

The usual casts of suspects gathered for last weekend’s talks. Bertie Ahern and Tony Blair flew in again. The media satellite trucks again took their place on nearby lawns. The various party negotiating teams came and went. Again no final deal was done. Yet again all was adjourned for more talks - this time again back to Stormont Castle.

It is difficult to decipher the different interpretations of the three-day talks now being advances by the different sides. It is unclear whether real progress was made or whether a sequence of definitive steps towards completion will now be played out.

If completion of the peace process is about to happen, then that is to be welcomed. If it doesn’t, then maybe it is time to ask whether in fact some of Northern Ireland’s politicians are actually addicted to the process that has accompanied the peace.

Like spoilt children who have got too much attention for years it could be the case that some of Northern Ireland’s politicians are just enjoying the limelight too much. Instead of propelling them forward to final completion perhaps the extensive media and political interest is actually holding them back.

It is conceivable that, comfortable in the spotlight, some of them don’t want to move on to the duller days of mundane, demanding, ungrateful drudgery which can accompany government and normalised politics.

Unfortunately, some of the parties upon whom we are now relying to deliver completion are those who are most enjoying the limelight as peacemakers.

For Sinn Féin, the peace process is very valuable. Some analysts of republicanism maintain that Gerry Adams can now deliver - and perhaps at any time over the last two years could have delivered - a standing down of the IRA as paramilitary entity. Some who observe the Sinn Féin leadership at close quarters contend that, in fact, Sinn Féin has held off on delivering the final element of the peace process because this suits their short-term political purposes.

Adams and McGuinness have persuaded the IRA to jump through some incredible hoops over the last number of years, including cessation and some decommissioning. Surely, if they really wanted to, they could have persuaded the IRA to convert itself into some kind of old comrades’ organisation. In light of the changed international environment post 9/11, and after nearly a decade of ceasefire, the reality is that the IRA can never return to their so-called war.

Is it possible that Sinn Féin has held off (and maybe is still holding off) on delivering this final step so that it can continue to enjoy the profile that goes with being a big player at the bargaining table.

Many commentators, especially from Northern Ireland, are very hung up on the fact that Sinn Féin needs to go the final steps in the peace process in order to assist its electoral advances here in the Republic. Ultimately this is true - but maybe not just yet. I have argued that for as long as Sinn Fein is seen to retain a paramilitary wing there will be a glass ceiling on the support which it can achieve here in the Republic.

However, the important point is that, as of now, Sinn Fein has not actually reached that glass ceiling. It probably will not do so until, at the earliest, the next Dáil election in 2006 or 2007. Between now and then Sinn Féin may benefit more from the oxygen of media coverage which the party derives from its centrality to the peace process than from any cleansing in the electorate’s eyes which the standing down of the IRA might give rise to.

Sinn Féin’s profile in the peace process is in reality distorting inter-party competition here in the Republic. Hardly a day passes without some story about the latest plays in the peace process. This generates large volumes of media coverage for the Sinn Fein leadership in their key political market, north and south of the border.

Consequently Sinn Fein gets coverage in media in the Republic completely out of proportion to its vote share. More importantly the nature of this coverage is also distorted. While other opposition political parties are lucky to get coverage for parliamentary party get-togethers at some country hotel, Sinn Féin has the benefit of photocalls on the steps of Government Buildings or at the front door of Downing Street. While other opposition politicians are pinned to their collars about health, education or taxation policies, Sinn Féin leaders get to focus in their interviews on broad-vision peace process themes.

The peace process profile also benefits Sinn Féin fundraising. For several weeks of every year, around St Patrick’s Day and at other times of the year, Gerry Adams, in his peace player persona, is a hot ticket for fundraising functions on the east and west coasts of the US, in Australia, Canada, New Zealand and even in some British cities. With a bank lodgement slip in one hand and a script about the Irish peace process in the other, Sinn Féin trades, and trades quiet lucratively, on its peace strategy in Irish ex- pat communities all over the world. This funding has the knock-on effect of making Sinn Féin a very well resourced election machine and is distorting elections in Northern Ireland and here in the Republic. On the other side, the Democratic Unionist Party has built and reinforced much of its support base on opposing the initial phases of the peace process. Then they secured further support by implying they could be trusted to get a better deal for unionism in the final phase of the peace process. DUP politicians are also clearly enjoying the new-found limelight they have attracted as the leading peace maker on their side of the divide. Their second line leadership also very much wants to be in government in Northern Ireland.

However, perhaps it is also the case that it suits them to delay the finalisation of the peace process, at least for another little while. The DUP leadership are acutely aware that any suggestion of sell-out on their part could topple them from their new-found position at the top of unionism. Here, too, the medium-term political considerations may be against a final peace deal - at least until next summer’s elections to the Westminster parliament.

One of the morals in the movie Groundhog Day is that the Bill Murray character becomes trapped in the same repeating day because of insecurity - he is too afraid to move on to ‘tomorrow.’

The stakes involved in the Northern Ireland peace process are greater than the respective political and electoral considerations of the various political parties. We are now all hoping that a final deal is imminent. If, however, the northern political parties do not find it possible to get beyond this final rut, then maybe instead of attention and adulation what they should be subjected to is isolation and sanction. Maybe that is what will be needed to displace them from their comfort zone and tilt them towards the final steps forward.