A trivial reshuffle becomes a farce

THE chaos theory holds that a butterfly flapping its wings somewhere in the world can cause - through a whole series of connected events - carnage and catastrophe.

When a Dublin TD with a famous name started flapping his wings about a junior ministry at Christmas time, terrible consequences unfolded for Fianna Fáil.

What should have been something trivial - replacing a player on the reserve team - has turned into the kind of farce and spectacle you see in Charlie Chaplin movies.

First the Keystone Cops bit. Síle de Valera’s astonishing statement this week that she had agreed with Bertie Ahern four months ago that she would step down next December took the story from the merely embarrassing to the ridiculous.

Had the Taoiseach outwitted even himself? Or did he keep his cards so close to his chest he couldn’t see the hand he was playing?

What did he mean when he said he didn’t dispute Ms de Valera’s versions of events? They either agreed with the train of events last November or did not. And why did they not say a word about this (what was so secret about it anyway?) in the face of all the political mills and donnybrooks that the reshuffle has caused?

And now the pie fight. The abysmal handling of this mess caused ripples of discontent within the Fianna Fáil ranks. And Bertie will be in a right quandary in December when Síle de Valera shunts into the background. The fact he went outside Dublin to replace Ivor Callely will mean others will now be puffing out their chests to show that they’re big and bold enough for it. But then, if Haughey isn’t handed the post, isn’t that going to create another three-day blow in the media? Whoever gets it will be driven around in a mini-merc for the grand total of six months. What difference will that make? Electorally, it will be like giving a man a feather to fend off a pack of rabid dogs.

And now the funny little walk off to the horizon. Fianna Fáil TDs always present a united public face. In private, they grumble a lot, venting the frustration that comes when a party has been a long time in power. They all know FF reached its high water mark of electoral support in 2002 and the only way is down. In other words, seats (and, ohmigod, maybe my seat) will be lost.

What’s almost as acute is the discontent of those whose backsides have been polishing the backbenches for too long. There is now a rump of the thwarted and frustrated within FF. While there’s no schism, no niggling questions about Mr Ahern’s leadership, you get the sense that cards are being marked.

The bungled reshuffle will have few short or medium-term implications, but politicians have elephantine memories. For some FF TDs there will be fallout after 2007 from what they see as the completely undeserved elevation of Mary Wallace, the shafting of Sean Haughey and the messing around with Síle de Valera’s status.

For the first time, we started hearing some sunset talk - TDs privately speculating that, for Bertie, this might be the beginning of the end.

From Chaplin to Schwarzenegger. If the reshuffle showed FF at its worst, the performance of Noel Dempsey on the Sea Fisheries Bill showed the party at its very best.

The political antennae of the Meath man can sometimes be a bit wonky. In the past, his attempts to scrap the dual mandate, to reduce the number of TDs and to reintroduce fees for third-level colleges were all - objectively - laudable ambitions. However, politically, none of them would wash. He either didn’t read the signs or ignored them and ploughed ahead regardless.

The quality that downed him then - his donkey stubbornness - is what brought him home this week.

For once - and we must applaud this - there was an open Fianna Fáil backbench rebellion rather than muttering out of the side of the mouth. It would have been convenient for Mr Dempsey to dilute and mollify and appease but he stood his ground.

The Taoiseach’s letter to the rebels contained nothing more than a few sops: vague promises on administrative sanctions (and, at that, top-heavy with conditionalities). There was no shifting, no budging, no compromise.

Whatever one feels about the legislation, you must admire Mr Dempsey’s willingness to stand in “an bhearna bhaol”. The way he stood down his detractors in the Dáil this week will go down as his strongest moment in Irish politics.