Bush likely to win for the very reasons many here don’t like him

NOBODY is claiming victory yet. There is a long way to go in the US presidential campaign. Plenty of time for controversy, tremors in the economy, rumours of scandal and swings in the polls.

But it's looking good for the president. Two weeks ago, history was against him. Since 1956, none of the three presidents who trailed in a Gallup poll after February of a re-election year won a second term. And Bush was six points down in June.

Now the statistics are in his favour. The bounce from last week's Republican convention put him into an eleven-point lead in Time and Newsweek polls by Labour Day on Monday. Gallup has him seven points in front. Past elections suggest that the candidate leading on Labour Day nearly always wins the election.