Only another outrage like 9/11 can save Bush’s re-election campaign

LAST year people were taking it for granted that George W Bush would be re-elected this November, but the lessons of history would suggest that it may not be so easy. Indeed public opinion polls indicate that he has an uphill battle.

During the 20th century there were 18 presidents of the United States. Eleven of them were Republicans, but only two of them served two complete terms Dwight Eisenhower (1953 to 1961) and Ronald Reagan (1981 to 1989). Two of the presidents Warren Harding and John F Kennedy were killed during their first terms, and the other 16 ran for re-election. Eleven were successful and five were defeated. Four of the losers were Republicans WH Taft (1912), Herbert Hoover (1932), Gerald Ford (1976) and George H Bush (1992). The only Democrat who was defeated in a re-election contest was Jimmy Carter (1980).

George W Bush and his father are only the second father and son combination elected president. In 1800 John Adams has the dubious distinction of being the first president to fail to win re-election, and his son John Quincy Adams was the second in 1828.