Divided by a common language but united by a common market

MOST of the European decision-making mechanism is now on vacation but in September we will see what portfolios will be allotted to Charlie McCreevy, Peter Mandelson and their various new Commission colleagues.

The main priority identified for the new European Commission, under José Manuel Barroso, is the sharpening of Europe’s competitiveness and improving Europe’s sluggish economic growth rates.

Whatever about these economic challenges, the central political task facing the European Commission and indeed all leading European politicians over the next few years is the ratification of the new European Union constitution. Tony Blair and Bertie Ahern in particular are likely to spend some of their holidays in Barbados and Kerry respectively doing some strategic thinking about how to get the European constitution passed by referenda in their respective countries.

In Ireland the passing of the referendum on the European constitution should be relatively straight forward. The lessons of the first Nice referendum have been well learnt and never again will the political establishment in this country take the electorate for granted on the question of Europe. You can expect a lot of cross-party co-operation, much involvement on the yes side by civil society and social partners and an overload of information and explanation about what the new constitution means.

The case for a yes vote on the European constitution has also been helped by the fact that the putting together of this constitution has been a more transparent and somewhat more democratic process then the negotiation of previous European treaties.

The first draft of the constitution was decided on by the Convention on Europe which was made up mainly of representatives from national parliaments as well as national governments and was chaired by the former French President Giscard D’Estaing.

The members of the Convention of Europe included, for example, the Irish European Affairs Minister Dick Roche and former Taoiseach John Bruton while Dáil deputies Pat Carey and John Gormley also participated. The draft which emerged from the European Convention was then negotiated on by the 25 member state governments in an intergovernmental conference.

It will assist the yes case in Ireland that much of the work on getting final agreement on the text of the new European Constitution came to fruition at the Irish Presidency summit in Brussels in June.

The other factor likely to make the ratification process easier is the availability of time. Unlike the first Nice referendum, the ratification of the new European Union constitution will not be rushed. The agreement on the new constitution will be formally signed on behalf of the 25 member states in Rome this autumn and then members will have until mid-2006 to ratify it in their home countries.

While no date has been announced for the holding of our referendum, the government has made it clear that Ireland will not be not be among the first of the 12 or so member states likely to hold a referendum. In reality, this means it could be the spring of 2006 before we hold our poll.

There are already signs that the time available before our referendum will be well used.

The new constitution will form the basis of much of the Forum on Europe’s work and deliberations over the next year and a half. There will also be ample opportunity for the Dáil and Seanad to offer their views. The media too has ample time to digest and dissect what the final draft of the new constitution proposes. The government should begin the detailed information process about the new constitution as soon as possible. There is no need to wait for the referendum campaign itself before involving the public directly in the process.

One idea might be to send an actual copy of the finalised text of the new constitution to every household in the country early next year - many months in advance of even the announcement of the date of the referendum.

Although the final text still runs to the length of a long novel and the text is still somewhat turgid in places, in language and form, it is a dramatic improvement on previous European treaties. The text of the constitution can, of course, also be accompanied by a more user-friendly explanatory document. However, the concept of one full copy of the new constitution being available well in advance in every household could be a significant obstacle to any misinformation being spread about what is in the constitution or what it means. Because they will be able to dip in and out of it and explore copies of it themselves, the Irish electorate will be able to check what both sides are saying against the actual text.

BETWEEN now and the referendum campaign, there will be a sideshow which will be interesting to watch and which could have an impact on the outcome - the attitude the Green Party.

It has campaigned for a no vote in all European referenda to date. During the course of the second Nice referendum, the party took much stick for its negative approach. It was seen as being out of step with much of the green movement on continental Europe and also with much of the Green Party’s own support base here in Ireland. The party has now announced that it is reserving its position on the European constitution referendum and instead says that in the coming months it will engage its membership in a consultation process on what the party’s stance should be.

The “realist” element of the Irish Green Party is now in ascendance (and probably more so since Patricia McKenna lost her seat in the European parliament) and therefore there is every likelihood that the Green Party will come out for a yes in the referendum on the European constitution.

Another sideshow which is also likely to have some impact on the referendum campaign here in the Republic is the simultaneous campaign which will be going on in the United Kingdom. We don’t know precisely when the British referendum will be. However, the debate on the issue in the United Kingdom is likely to rage from now until then and overspill of British opinion and media will be inevitable.

Of course, Northern Ireland will also be voting in the UK’s referendum. The Democratic Unionist Party, the Ulster Unionist Party and Sinn Féin are generally sceptical on Europe and are on record as opposed to the new European constitution. Last June, Northern Ireland elected three eurosceptic MEPs. As of now the SDLP, and the Alliance are likely to be the only main parties in Northern Ireland likely to campaign for a yes vote in the referendum on the constitution and, as of now, Northern Ireland is likely to overwhelmingly reject the constitution.

In reality, though, there has never been much real debate on Europe in Northern Ireland. Even European elections have been dominated by Northern Ireland’s tribal politics. When the question is put up to them starkly there may be more yes voters for the new European constitution in Northern Ireland then are yet apparent.

Whenever they come, and irrespective of what order they come in, the referendum campaigns on these islands will be defining moments in their relationships with Europe and with one another.