David Davin-Power: Mary Lou will have to move carefully if Sinn Féin is to throw in their lot with Fianna Fáil

Many frontbenchers want to bury the Civil War hatchet and enter a Grand Coalition, with the Greens as political cover, writes David Davin-Power

A deafening clamour for change swept Sinn Féin to the top of the poll, and Mary Lou McDonald knows she has first to explore the prospects of a real alternative government made up of parties and independents of the left. She has made it clear that Sinn Féin is now a party of government; she wants to see Sinn Féin ministers in cabinet, even if she has wisely avoided talking about those posts, let alone what role she might play.

Her frontbenchers repeatedly stressed, as they know they must, that their overwhelming preference was for a government that didn’t include Fine Gael or Fianna Fáil. A party that campaigned for change could scarcely say otherwise.

Ms McDonald would, of course, be Taoiseach in the kind of left-leaning administration she is exploring, but it is hard to see where the numbers are to come from. The Green Party, the Social Democrats and Labour would be relatively staunch partners, but further out the socialist spectrum, there are more extreme voices that would extract a high price for cooperation and might not ultimately prove unreliable in the lobbies when the pressure comes on.

In any event, with the numbers falling short of a Dáil majority, a left-leaning Coalition would require the forbearance of either Fine Gael or Fianna Fáil in key votes in some kind of informal confidence and supply, and it is very difficult to see those parties assisting a set up which they regard as likely to wreck the economy.

To a man and woman, newly elected TDs insisted today that Sinn Féin would talk to anyone, but wanted a programme that would tackle the problems laid out on the doorsteps, primarily those relating to housing. The implicit message was one of openness and dialogue, contrasting the party with its main rivals who insisted throughout the campaign that they wouldn’t do business with Sinn Féin.

Now, of course, all is changed, not utterly perhaps, but changed nonetheless. Michéal Martin had little option but to change tack on Saturday, his choice of words indicating that he was now open to talking to everyone, including Mary Lou McDonald. He was right to move when he did, acting before party pressure forced his hand after a poor election which saw many popular TDs lose their seats.

Little may happen in the ten days before the Dáil meets and her party has the chance to propose Mary Lou McDonald for Taoiseach. But when contacts aimed at producing a left-leaning government founder, the options will quickly narrow. That is when Sinn Féin will face its biggest hurdle. The party will have to demonstrate to its supporters and TDs that there really is no alternative to entering talks with Michéal Martin.

For all the talk about shadowy figures in Belfast, Sinn Féin prides itself on keeping in touch with its base. The decision to pull out of Stormont three years ago was taken after an angry meeting of activists in Belfast who let the leadership know in no uncertain terms that serving in government with a first minister who had grown contemptuous was damaging its support.

Even though the prize this time is government office in both parts of the island, Mary Lou McDonald will still have to move carefully. Sinn Féin members see their party as radical and anti-establishment and will need some convincing if they are to throw in their lot with Fianna Fáil.

She can argue that they would be entering government from a position of strength that they might not see again, the party with the largest vote share negotiating with a wounded leader.

But therein may lie the biggest problem for Sinn Féin. Senior figures in Fianna Fáil are vehemently opposed to any alliance with Mary Lou McDonald and have told Micheal Martin so. Many frontbenchers want to bury the Civil War hatchet and enter a Grand Coalition, with the Greens as political cover.

Senior Fianna Fáil figures point to a slump in the share price of the main banks today that has lopped over €300 million off the value of the public’s shareholding as evidence of the dangers posed by Sinn Féin in government.

Justice spokesman Jim O’Callaghan was the most vocal, arguing that it just wasn’t tenable for his party to do a deal with the party.

The perils for the two traditional parties in entering government just as the electorate is clamouring for change are all too obvious. But the problems facing Micheal Martin today as more Fianna Fáil TDs fell by the wayside were obvious too.

Mary Lou McDonald might look as if she is on the threshold of entering government after her stunning victory, but ironically it’s the very weakness of one of the parties that she routed that may ultimately stand between Sinn Féin and office.