Difficulties for Sinn Féin to attract a coalition partner even after Adams

It is time that the Great Leader acted decisively on this generational change he speaks about and stands down to make way for Mary Lou, writes Alison O’Connor

SO SINN Féin has bitten the bullet, as it were, and done the political equivalent of putting itself on Tinder. The problem with dating apps though is they require certain specifics, not least a face for the photograph.

But how can prospective partners even think about swiping right if they don’t know whether the match would be with Gerry Adams, president of the party since 1983, or someone else, most likely Mary Lou McDonald.

What Sinn Féin is stating emphatically is that after the next general election it does not want

to be a post-election wallflower, significantly changing its stance from 2016 when it rather oddly demanded that it would need to be the dominant partner in any coalition arrangement. As it happened nobody came calling.

So we have a little more realism at work, notwithstanding the demand for an announcement about an Irish unity referendum within five years.

It’s been hard to work out where exactly Sinn Féin is at right now and while there is some elucidation following the party’s think-in this week, much confusion remains.

We still hear the usual caveats about Gerry Adams staying on because he is needed to bring the “hard men” along. If this gang isn’t along the road by now they are never going to be. It is time that the Great Leader acted decisively on this generational change he speaks about and stands down to make way for Mary Lou.

As we were reminded with Enda Kenny’s slow departure self regard can be potently high among party leaders. In Kenny’s situation it involved giving up being Taoiseach of the country, not just leader of his party. Adams case is different, and he has a magnificent legacy in terms of the peace process, but nonetheless his self reverential manner indicates a man who finds it virtually impossible to imagine this party without his leadership.

He spoke of the party’s succession planning being affected by the tragic death of Martin McGuinness earlier this year; without doubt that a was a massive shock and a huge loss, most especially to him. But it is being used by him now as yet another delaying tactic, no doubt being internally portrayed as a further act of self sacrifice.

There isn’t a hope of Fine Gael or Fianna Fáil even considering joining forces with Sinn Féin while Adams remains at the helm. This week Fianna Fáil was under fire for being seen to cosy up to developers with its VAT proposal. It was politically embarrassing, but the party will ride it out.

Compare that to Gerry Adams recent comments on jailing the IRA killers of Tom Oliver saying it would be “totally and absolutely counterproductive”. Mr Oliver, 42, a father of seven from Riverstown, Co Louth, was abducted and murdered by the Provisional IRA. His body was found in south Armagh. He had been shot in the head.

That is in a realm far different from being seen as uncomfortably close to big builders and simply couldn’t or wouldn’t be risked by Fine Gael or Fianna Fáil in a potential coalition arrangement. Imagine senior politicians from either of those parties attempting to muster up some sort of solidarity with Adams on such an issue as is the way of things in a coalition. It would make responding, for instance, to Finian McGrath on the HPV vaccine or Shane Ross on the independence of the judiciary, seem like a political cakewalk.

That isn’t to say the risk is completely negated by Adams stepping down as leader. There was a lot of unease surrounding historic sexual abuse claims and how the party dealt them in recent years but Mary Lou backed Gerry Adams’ handling of these situations to the hilt. There is the additional issue of allegations of bullying within the party, with the most recent exit being Limerick councillor Lisa Marie Sheehy.

It is a political tactic for FG and FF to say they will not enter coalition with SF after the next election but the feelings run far deeper than that. There is a genuine animus among many in both parties against the prospect. Sure some in Fianna Fáil are more amenable to the suggestion but certainly not party leader Micheál Martin. It is very difficult to see how he could change his stance on this and maintain credibility.

Mary Lou said this week that Sinn Féin was not a cult, claiming this was a view actively encouraged by their political opponents. “We’re not a homogeneous bunch of robots.” She may deny this strenuously but there is such a production line quality to Sinn Féin representatives in Leinster House, with everyone sticking so religiously to the party line, that it doesn’t need its political opponents to point out the all too obvious.

The very fact that the party line is consistently and almost religiously maintained on Adams remaining as leader — in what other party would such a thing happen? — looks from the outside as if there is an element of fear at work. Party sources will say that it is a united front built up against a media consensus, and there is a certain logic to that, but it does not explain the totalitarian nature of it.

Mary Lou is by far the best bet for the party in the future. It is impossible to imagine that when she takes over that some of the militaristic-type discipline that marks the party out in an unhealthy way won’t change for the better.

Sinn Féin has been in a state of stasis in the South, an impression that has not been helped by the state of affairs between it and the DUP in the North. One of the main reasons for Fianna Fáil not to enter coalition with Fine Gael after the last election was an unwillingness to leave the stage clear for Sinn Féin as the main party of theopposition. Whatever else has

resulted, that particular approach has worked.

So Sinn Féin needs the boon of a new party leader going into the next general election. Mary Lou, needs the time to settle in as that leader and to put her own mark on the party. A highly skilled politician — strong on the twin issues of health and housing — it is still unlikely, even if elected tomorrow, that she could persuade FG and FF that it’s a good idea to join forces with her party post election.

But given the right amount of time she could well broaden the party base somewhat and turn that into more Dáil seats. In doing so it would make it exceptionally difficult for the two bigger parties to ignore the numbers when it might come to a possible coalition arrangement. However it is still possible to see them doing so for the reasons outlined above.

So even if the numbers end up in their favour the party has a lot to do to broaden its attraction in the political dating game.