French election: Remake the centre to outflank extremists

France will elect a president tomorrow and, if the opinion polls are correct, centrist Emmanuel Macron will defeat the National Front’s Marine Le Pen. A poll released yesterday showed that the pro-EU Mr Macron has extended his lead.

Almost two thirds, 62%, are expected to endorse him. This puts him in a far stronger position than the still-in-denial Hillary Clinton was before America voted last year, so victory for Ms Le Pen — now considered almost unthinkable even though 38% of voters say they will support her — would be even more confounding than Donald Trump’s.

A Le Pen victory would be unthinkable on so many levels, for France and for Europe, but so too are the Trump presidency and Brexit. President Le Pen would deepen the pessimism provoked by the Trump, Erdogan, Orbán and Brexit votes. In European terms, it might be more significant and destructive than Brexit.