Ireland’s future is under the EU spotlight

Not for the first time, Ireland looks like it will be centre-stage at this weekend’s meeting of European leaders in Brussels, writes Political Editor Daniel McConnell.

However, having been the troublesome bootboy during the financial crash and made suffer by our “friends”, it appears to be better news for us.

We all woke up to our front pages yesterday telling us that EU leaders are preparing to recognise the potential for a united Ireland within the union, confirming that Northern Ireland would seamlessly rejoin the bloc after Brexit should reunification be voted for.

The Financial Times told us that diplomats are seeking the approval of the 27 EU leaders (minus Theresa May) to endorse the plan, notwithstanding fears it may further the drive to a break-up of the UK.

Under the plan, it would allow the six counties the example of German reunification in 1990 and would strongly reflect the terms of the 1998 Good Friday agreement, the deal which has underpinned almost 25 years of peace.

Under Good Friday, a referendum is permitted to address the question of unification and should a majority of people north and south desire it, it would happen.

Both Dublin and London, in the wake of the Brexit vote on June 23 last year, have repeatedly committed to sticking by Good Friday as co-guarantors.

While the reference to Ireland is an important signal, no final decision has been taken on what form Irish unity would take. It is clear that such decisions have to be taken by Britain in consultation with Ireland.

Such a position was made clear by EU Council president Donald Tusk in his letter to EU leaders yesterday. Tusk has said that Britain must settle the key issues of “people, money, and Ireland” before any talks on a post-Brexit trade deal begin.

In a letter to leaders of the remaining 27 EU countries ahead of a summit tomorrow, Tusk said that “before discussing our future, we must first sort out our past”.

“This is not only a matter of tactics but — given the limited timeframe, we have to conclude the talks — it is the only possible approach,” the former Polish leader wrote to the leaders.

“I would like us to unite around this key principle during the upcoming summit so that it is clear that progress on people, money, and Ireland must come first.

“And we have to be ready to defend this logic during the upcoming negotiations.”

This weekend’s meeting in Brussels marks the beginning of the important next step in the Brexit process and will see the formal adoption of negotiating guidelines for the 27 countries.

For the EU to hold, it is important for it to be seen to be taking a tough line on issues but the key factor, as highlighted by German chancellor Angela Merkel, is unity.

Merkel has spoken of the need to protect Ireland in the aftermath of Brexit as one of a “multitude of special interests”. Merkel warned that success for the EU in the Brexit talks hinges on unity among the EU’s remaining 27 members.

She said she was encouraged by the show of unity among the EU27 leaders in the months since the Brexit vote. She then spoke of the need to protect Ireland and argued the only way to do that is for the 27 to hold together: “For instance, if we think of the Republic of Ireland and its shared space with Britain and the problems in Northern Ireland, it was a good thing we held together.”

Speaking yesterday in Dublin, Public Expenditure Minister Paschal Donohoe confirmed the Irish priorities set to be copper-fastened in a key European Council Brexit document this weekend will “underscore” the possibility of a united Ireland border vote taking place in the future.

Donohoe said that while he does not believe such a poll will take place in the near future, it is “imperative” that the legal right to such a vote is included in a “post-Brexit legal environment”.

“The Good Friday agreement lays down the mechanisms under which a border poll will be triggered, and that is firstly the recognition of the secretary of state and secondly how the communities in the North would vote.

"I don’t believe that poll is imminent, but what is imperative for this coun-try is that the legal status and political relevance of the Good Friday agreement is under-scored in a post-Brexit legal environment. And that’s what the Taoiseach and all of us have been working hard on for the next number of months,” he said.

Predictability, there were shouts of concern from the unionist camps in Belfast as Ulster Unionist MEP Jim Nicholson criticised attempts in Dublin and Brussels to include provisions for a future united Ireland in Brexit talks.

“As I made clear to EU negotiator Michel Barnier in the European Parliament earlier this month, Dublin does not speak for Northern Ireland — and Brussels does not speak for us either. It is disappointing to see that some are using Brexit as an excuse to try to break up the United Kingdom,” he said.

Nicholson’s criticisms have more to do with the existential crisis within Ulster unionism than anything else, but from an all-Ireland perspective, it is hard to see how much better the Government could have done.

Such explicit references to Ireland also include a reiteration of the EU’s support for the Belfast agreement and the continuation of the funding arrangements that underpin it.

A commitment to allow the Common Travel Area continue is also significant if not unsurprising, but to give credit to the Irish side, there now seems to be a recognition of the need to minimise the damage Brexit will do to Ireland.

Such recognition also reflects the fact many within the Brussels machine want to repay Ireland for the manner in which we dealt with the financial crisis and how we stomached the tough medicine in fixing the economy. “There is some recognition that Ireland did get screwed back in 2008 and 2010 and there is a willingness to put that right,” one senior official told me.

Credit is also due to Taoiseach Enda Kenny.

He has been oft criticised for not bowing to pressure to establish a Brexit minister, preferring to run it himself.

The intense series of meetings all over Europe and a clear stepping up of engagement with London also appears to have paid off.

It must be pointed out that nothing, absolutely nothing, is finalised at this stage, but this is a good start for the Government.

And promises from European friends now could easily get lost when in the teeth of fierce talks a compromise will have to be reached.

So Kenny will have some reason to be cheerful as he boards the government jet to Brussels today and can legitimately conclude it so far has been a job well done. He may also realise that it may not get any better than this and it could be the perfect occasion to depart on a high.