Horn of Africa: The developed world must now show solidarity with those on the brink
A young woman from the Turkana community waters goats from a shallow well dug into a dry riverbed at Eliye springs on the western shore of Lake Turkana. Picture: Tony KARUMBA / AFP via Getty Images
THE UN World Food Programme (WFP) and Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) recently estimated there are 345m people facing acute food insecurity around the world, with 222m people in need of urgent assistance in the worst-affected countries, and up to 50m on the edge of famine.
The Horn of Africa is once again witnessing some of the most severe levels of hunger, with at least 36m at risk of starvation across Somalia, Kenya, and Ethiopia. This has led to huge numbers displaced from their homes in search of food, with reports of many dying of hunger in transit.
The key causes include a fourth consecutive season of drought in the Horn of Africa, the worst for 40 years, which has wiped out livestock and crops. And there is a strong likelihood of below average rainfall over the coming months which would mean a recordbreaking five-season drought as climate change continues to disrupt weather patterns. High food prices are exacerbating the crisis throughout the region, whilst conflict continues to damage food availability and access in many countries.
In Somalia, famine is about to be declared unless urgent action is taken, with 300,000 people in the most extreme conditions of hunger (catastrophic) and 6.7m people facing emergency levels of acute food insecurity, representing over 40% of the population. The likelihood of below average rainfall in October to December will amplify the lower than normal harvests and high livestock deaths of the past year, leading to famine conditions extending across the country.
In Kenya, the drought has left many districts without any rainfall for three years, with over a third of the population suffering acute malnutrition.
In southern and eastern Ethiopia, the most severe drought in recent history has led to some 7m people suffering acute food insecurity. The Deyr rains up to January 2023 in Ethiopia are also forecast to be below average, as are those for eastern and northern Kenya.
Conflict is another major cause of hunger and starvation. In northern Ethiopia, and particularly Tigray Region, humanitarian aid continues to be prevented from reaching the population by the Federal government in an ongoing conflict with the Region of Tigray. This is in contradiction of UN Security Council Resolution 2417 on the use of starvation as a method of warfare.
In July 2022, it was estimated that 13m people were in need of food assistance in northern Ethiopia, and more recently, 5.4m in Tigray where 89% of the population was classified as food insecure.
Relief operations in Tigray have reached some 4m people since the start of August, but many households have only received limited and partial food baskets and the west of the province has remained inaccessible. Since the resumption of fighting at the end of August, there has been virtually no access and no humanitarian support going into Tigray. Ongoing conflict also continues to hinder access to food in parts of Somalia.
Food prices remain exceptionally high in the Horn of Africa due to the drought and the recent surge in international commodity prices driven by the war in Ukraine, putting staple foods beyond the reach of many people and aid agencies.
In Somalia, which imports 90% of its cereal needs, maize and sorghum prices are more than double those of last year, and food prices have now surpassed the 2011 famine levels.
In Ethiopia, food inflation was running at 40% higher in the first half of 2022, with maize prices more than doubling in the South.
Of the requested $3.4bn drought response needs for Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia, only $1.9bn had been funded by the end of August, and it is anticipated that funding needs will increase in the light of recent assessments.
Given the huge impact of higher prices on food access for poor people and aid agencies, there also needs to be greater transparency around price movements on global commodity exchanges and other food markets.
Global cereal stocks have remained close to 30% of total needs since 2014, well above the average of some 20% in the previous decade.
Yet, despite the ample stocks and supplies, international cereal prices have risen sharply in volatile markets over recent months. Whilst the Russian invasion of Ukraine contributed to this, the fundamental market situation suggests prices should not have risen so sharply and may still be overstated, adding to the increased number of hungry people around the world.
Measures to improve market transparency and prevent excessive speculation and price volatility, need to be addressed by governments to ensure that everyone has access to affordable food.
It is also clear that food systems need to be transformed as soon as possible, especially to address climate change issues. For example, our unsustainable global food system continues to divert about 40% of cereal production to animal feed, largely in countries with unhealthy consumption levels of livestock-based protein and high livestock-related greenhouse gas emissions.
A transition away from livestock production in the developed world to curb emissions would also help dampen prices of grain and other crops over time as more land becomes available for food rather than feed crops.
More pressingly, increased humanitarian aid and improved market management measures are vital to address the growing hunger crisis in the Horn of Africa and prevent famine.
The scale of such aid pales in comparison to the cost of capping energy prices by developed nations, who are ultimately responsible for much of the climate change induced hunger in the region.
The developed world needs to show global solidarity with the millions of people in the Horn of Africa struggling to survive in the face of multiple crises.
There’s a growing sense of hopeless among people I meet through my work, as I travel from community to community in drought-stricken, rural northern Kenya.
You can feel it. And when you talk to people, hear their stories and see the hardship they are experiencing, it’s very hard not to be moved emotionally.
I visited a woman recently in her hut. One of her children had been admitted to hospital suffering with malnutrition. Her herd of 100 cattle had died from hunger and disease. She was lying with a bowl of flour. That was all she had to feed the eight members of her family that day.
She had not eaten herself that day. She was depressed, detached from reality, and in shock.
“We try to eat every day but if we do not have any food, we sleep,” she told me.
As we were leaving she added: “the next time you come here, instead of seeing carcases of animals, you will see the remains of human beings”.
Her story is replicated across the vast rocky, sandy landscape of Marsabit in northwestern Kenya, criss-crossed with dried up seasonal river beds and large swathes of parched, cracked earth. The last four rainy seasons have failed and the rains due in the coming weeks are also expected to fail. Without sufficient water, the future of communities is uncertain.
It has only rained once since I began working with Concern in Marsabit last November.
The January rain only lasted a few days. It was temporary and sporadic – insufficient to replenish water supplies or regenerate pasturelands for livestock.
However, the sporadic rain and sudden cold resulted in the death of many severely malnourished animals from shock and pneumonia/hypothermia. Over 500,000 cattle, goats, camels, and donkeys died.
For these pastoralist people, their animals are their primary source of food and income. Without rain, there is no pasture or water for the animals.
As we travel from village to village for nutrition and health out-reach clinics, we see the skeletal remains of camels, goats, sheep and cows.
Milk production and consumption by the children and pregnant women is almost nil, further exacerbating malnutrition.
Officially, the National Drought Management Authority, Marsabit County, reported that between July and September almost 40,000 livestock deaths, attributed mainly to starvation, opportunistic diseases, and parasite infestation.
The loss of millions of livestock is taking a heavy toll on the mental health of population. Pastoralists are proud of their animals.
When men lose their animals, it’s like many lose their manhood. They feel useless, unable to provide for their families. You can see the mental toll on their faces.
Equally as disturbing are the very alarming coping mechanisms which people are adopting in response to the loss of the animals and the growing uncertainty about where their next meal is coming from. Some families are barely feeding their children and adults are skipping meals.
As livestock die, human health soon suffers also. A major survey conducted in July revealed a worsening nutrition situation in North Horr and Laisamis Sub-County in Marsabit County, with Global Acute Malnutrition rates increasing from 20.80% to 30.30% in Laisamis and 22.60% to 29.50% in North Horr Sub-County over the last year. Normally malnutrition rates in this area are below 15%. Anything above 15% is considered critical.
With the worsening situation, my team is carrying out an exhaustive county-wide mass screening of children to try and get an accurate picture of the scale of the crisis.
As part of this exercise, we are aiming to visit every family in the county, especially those who have moved far away in search of pasture and water for their livestock.
Families are on the move, driven by desperation. We have no option but to also follow them to ensure that we reach them with integrated health and nutrition services, no matter what. Others are moving to areas where they know assistance is being provided by organisations like Concern Worldwide or the government. This large scale movement makes our mass screening more challenging.
I recently attended the county steering group meeting, to discuss the scale of the ongoing drought.
Marsabit County borders Ethiopia and we just received news that around 400 households that had migrated to the neighbouring country in search of pasture have come back having lost their livestock. This puts much more pressure on the constrained resources.
As people are becoming weaker it becomes more difficult for them to travel for help.
Many of the villages where families have gathered do not have any medical facilities. In some cases, our out reach clinics are run from under a shady tree. We are currently operating 81 bi-weekly outreaches out of 220 identified outreach sites. We are striving to reach 100% coverage.
Water is crucial for these communities. In communities where water is scarce, hygiene is important to prevent the spread of disease.
Our teams are working to promote good hygiene practice (such as hand washing) and distributing items such as jerry cans, soap, menstrual hygiene kits and detergent in communities.
The months ahead are very challenging.
The current rains due between now and December are forecast to fail. The early predictions for the March rains are also indicating that they will be below average.
I was part of the team that was responding to the 2017 drought situation but the present one is the worst and the future looks grim. If the ongoing humanitarian response is not scaled up and sustained, the situation will get worse.
When you talk to people, they tell you there is no hope, that their future is in the hands of God. But many believe that if the rains do not fall in the coming weeks, then they will die.
Baidoa is at the epicentre of the current drought and impending famine. The scale of the challenge facing humanitarian workers is overwhelming.
As the worst drought in 40 years takes an ever-tightening grip on the city and surrounding region, more and more people arrive every day, in search of water and food. An estimated 1,000 people a week are arriving into Baidoa’s sprawling displacement camps which are home now to 700,000 people.
Almost half of those displaced people have arrived since January 2022. They come by donkey carts, trucks, or on foot, carrying their belongings for 100km or more with them. When I talk to them, they have just one goal — survival.
Nobody can recall a drought so intense or so devastating, and we’ve had many droughts here in Baidoa over the years. The worst in recent times was in 2011 which escalated into a famine which claimed at least 260,000 lives.
Everyone here agrees that this drought is worse. We have not received proper rain in Baidoa since April 2020. In 2011, some people managed to store food to help them through. This time everyone’s reserves are empty.
In 2011, there were sporadic rains in some districts — enough to keep some pasturelands for animals. This year the drought is widespread, with shallow wells, lakes and reservoirs dry and even the mighty Juba River dried up at some point which is historic. Only the deepest boreholes still have some water. While some animals survived in 2011, this drought is destroying herds and livelihoods.
Securing enough water for Baidoa’s ever-expanding population is one of the biggest challenges for humanitarian organisations and the local government. Trucks carry water into the city from boreholes 15km away — they queue for half a day to fill up.
Meeting the needs of the huge number of displaced people is the single greatest challenge we face every day. Demand outstrips supply for almost everything that is needed.
The city’s two stabilisation centres — where malnourished children with medical complications are referred to — are constantly full. The mobile clinics in the camps are incapable of meeting the massive demand.
I visited a camp this week where an estimated 1,000 people turned up for the weekly clinic. Those queuing are desperate to get treatment and therapeutic food for their sick and malnourished children.
“My child died last month within the camp for internally displaced people due to measles but I was also not able to afford him something to eat and medication due to lack of money to buy them in order to save his life. Other children also died due to malnutrition,” one widow told me during to a visit to a camp outside Baidoa.
Hunger is everywhere. The city’s streets are full of people begging. Some of the traders and the city’s residents give them what they can. The Islamic faith encourages people to extend a helping hand to the needy especially during such difficult times.
This humanitarian situation has been developing in Baidoa since 2017, with the number of displaced people growing since then.
In the early years, the city’s existing population could assist the new arrivals. But soaring food prices — fuelled by the Ukraine conflict — are undermining their ability to help, as they struggle themselves to make ends meet.
The price of a 50kg bag of sugar has jumped from $25 to $46 (€47.35) since January. Twenty litres of cooking oil has gone from $20 to $40. Fuel has trebled from $0.50 to $1.50 a litre and 25kg wheat flour from $14.5 to $20.
The crisis is further complicated by non-state armed groups which control areas in the region. They are blocking supplies to government controlled towns and demanding food and money from local communities in the areas they control. The fact that Baidoa is government controlled is one of the reasons so many people are coming here.
Regional insecurity is also hindering the humanitarian response to the crisis, with the UN and humanitarian organisations having to fly life-saving supplies into the city.
With forecasts that the October to December rains will also fail and the next rainy season is not due until March, the next six months will be very challenging in Baidoa. All the factors are negative.
There is a growing expectation that the technical criteria to declare a famine in the Bay region (where Baidoa is the main city) will be confirmed in the coming weeks and a regional famine will be declared. Those decisions are for people at a higher level and don’t get much attention among ordinary people in Baidoa whose sole goal is survival.
But what is clear is that there is a critical need for a huge mobilisation of resources in the coming weeks.
All the indications are that the situation will get much worse in the coming months. Frontline humanitarian organisations like Concern Worldwide are here on the ground assisting people. But the needs greatly outstrip the available resources. With more resources we could help more people and save lives.
Kusow Kalmole is a humanitarian aid worker, based in Baidoa, Somalia, working for Concern Worldwide. His name is changed for security reasons.
You can see how severely malnourished people are after more than two years without almost any rain.
You see it in every area you pass through on the 900km journey from the regional capital Jijiga to the Erer zone in the Somali region of Ethiopia.
The land is 100% dry, there is no green to be seen. Wells have dried up, there is almost no surface water. You see the corpses of livestock. People are moving, leaving their animals behind.
When there is no rain, there is nothing to eat. Over 2.2m people in (of a population of 6.5m require emergency water interventions over the next five months, to minimise the severity of the drought.
We started trucking water into areas where we were already supporting women and young children with nutritional needs, to ensure they stayed on our programmes after we found that many were moving away from where they could be treated, just to find water for themselves and their livestock.
But our funded response is emergency, and is usually for just six months, with funds for water trucking soon coming to an end. Communities ask us: “what do you have planned, we are going back to having no water, will you still be able to do cash transfers, to allow us to buy food?”
I understand their fear — there isn’t any other coping mechanism on the ground.
Some 3.5m pastoralists and agro-pastoralists are affected in the region by the drought. There’s not enough water to grow the crops needed and livestock are dying in large numbers.
To lose all their livestock is a loss of identity and standing within the community, it’s very hard to come back from that.
We can see the desperate faces we meet wherever we go, the malnourished children, pregnant and breast-feeding mothers.
So far in 2022, there have been a total of 72,727 cases of young children suffering from severe acute malnutrition, an increase of 36.3% compared with the same period last year.
We’re supporting 180,000 people with nutrition activities, and the number of people needing support is growing week by week.
The numbers however don’t tell the full story. A child attending a treatment centre for severe or acute malnutrition is provided with ready to use therapeutic food to bring home, to help them put on weight and improve their condition. But what is happening is that there are more children at home, just as hungry, and that food is shared among the whole family, to stop them starving.
That child, instead of coming back in three weeks, returns after a week, and we don’t always have the supplies available to give them to help them get better.
Adding to the drought and malnutrition, we also have confirmeds cases of measles in two areas, which also increases the risk of death, especially for children who are malnourished as their immune systems are weakened. People will tell you they are now not just worried about malnutrition.
Like the rest of the world, inflation is also proving a huge challenge. Here the exchange rate is linked, not to the official rate of the Commercial Bank of Ethiopia, but to that set on the border with neighbouring Somaliland where it sets the price of imports. That exchange rate is twice as high.
Prices are not stable. If you go to the market to get some groceries you will not know the exact price because the exchange rate is confirmed day-to-day.
Imagine what it is like for people who are experiencing this drought, who don’t have any other means to support their life — they don’t know each day what the little money they have will get them, whether it’s through receiving cash transfers from organisations like ourselves, and if not, turning to begging in large cities, because they have lost everything.
I am from the Somali region. I was born in Jijiga and grew up here. It’s very hard to see communities suffering. It’s frustrating, not just here but across the Horn of Africa.
The Somali regional government is doing its best — as is the Somali diaspora — but there is a limited and scarce budget, and more international funding to organisations working on the ground is badly needed.
We need long-term funding to allow us to reassure communities that they have a safety net. Otherwise, you are working like a firefighter, putting water on the fire to put it out, but everything is destroyed and then another crisis hits.
Projects like rehabilitating water sources and fixing communal toilets are beginning now to get funding which will have a long-term impact, but there needs to be support for communities where that’s not happening.
If famine is declared in Somalia, we will see communities from there cross the border, over to this region, as many have roots here. It will put added strain on already limited resources. Communities who can, are already supporting internally displaced people, with what little they have, but if the drought looks to continue as predicted, even this support will disappear.
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