Fine Gael 'buoyed' with by-election poll, Sinn Féin 'not out of the race'

Tánaiste Simon Harris described the results as pointing to a 'very competitive by‑election'

Fine Gael senator Seán Kyne is out on front on 17%. Picture: Sam Boal

Fine Gael has been buoyed by a narrow lead in the Galway West by‑election, as Sinn Féin insists it is not out of the race.

The poll for Galway West, carried out by Ipsos B&A for the Irish Times/TG4, has put Fine Gael out in front with Seán Kyne on 17%, while Independent Ireland’s Noel Thomas is second on 16%.

Labour’s Helen Ogbu is in third place (12%), while Míde Ní Fhionnlaoich is fourth on 9%.

Cillian Keane of Fianna Fáil is on 8%, while Independent Mike Cubbard and Sinn Féin’s Mark Lohan are on 7%. 

Both Niall Murphy of the Green party and Independent Thomas Welby are on 6%.

The poll has a margin of error of 4%.

Fine Gael sources said they are “not surprised” with the poll results, citing a positive reception for Mr Kyne.

One TD suggested Mr Kyne has a pathway to victory in the by-election, but he would need to attract transfers from all over to “stay in the race”.

Another Fine Gael TD said they were “buoyed” by the result, adding that the organisation on the ground in Galway West is stronger than Dublin Central. 

Both by-elections are scheduled to take place on May 22. 

Fine Gael sources said they are 'not surprised' with the poll results, citing a positive reception for Seán Kyne. File picture

Tánaiste Simon Harris described the poll results as pointing to a “very competitive by‑election”, citing the fractured nature of Irish politics.

“What the opinion poll does show, if it turns out to be in any way like that on the day, is that the era of anybody being close to a quota on the first count in a by-election, back to that fragmented point, is likely gone,” he said.

He said transfers would be “very important” in the shakeup and has instructed canvassers to seek second preferences if a first preference is unavailable.

Sinn Féin sources pushed back on suggestions the party is out of the running in Galway West.

One TD said the poll was “way out” on the party's vote, suggesting that Mr Lohan could be underestimated by as much as five percentage points.

They added that issues such as the cost of living were by far the most common concerns raised on the doorstep.

Multiple TDs cited a Galway West poll ahead of the 2024 general election which had incumbent TD Mairéad Farrell on 9% and in fifth place, before she went on to top the poll.

The third place showing of Ms Ogbu has given Labour a boost, with some party sources suggesting this is the vote of Michael D Higgins and Catherine Connolly returning to Labour.

One TD said the poll had given Labour a “real boost”, comparing it to the Dublin Bay South by-election in 2021 which placed Ivana Bacik in second place. 

Ms Bacik went on to win the seat.

Fianna Fáil sources expressed concerns about their candidate’s poll position, with one TD describing it as a “shocking result”.

Another TD said the party’s expectations for the by-election were “outrageously low”.

However, one was more positive, suggesting Mr Keane would be able to grow his vote in the two weeks before polling day.

Taoiseach Micheál Martin urged caution over any opinion polls, saying previous polls had placed Fianna Fáil in third place before the party came first in the 2024 general election.

“It’s two weeks to go yet, no doubt the candidates will be out there campaigning very, very hard to achieve their highest first preferences and transfers will be critical,” said Mr Martin.

Independent Ireland, meanwhile, is confident in its candidate’s chances as Mr Thomas is in second place.

One party source said they hoped Mr Thomas would be able to capitalise on discontent within Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael’s base and take some votes from there.