By-elections will be referendum on a Government left with little wriggle room

With public anger at the cost of living and the Government's response to the fuel protests, the timing of the by-elections in Dublin Central and Galway West could not be worse for the Coalition parties

With the return of Gerry ‘The Monk’ Hutch in Dublin Central, the constituency is again likely to be the more exciting election campaign. Picture: Leah Farrell/ RollingNews.ie

One of the arguments for a general election ahead of Christmas 2024 was it would give Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael wriggle room in case the proverbial hit the fan in the new year.

While the general election technically did not have to take place until early 2025, there were fears among those in Government parties about pushing their luck.

Planning to have the election early meant that, if the date was not set in stone, it could be pushed back if a scandal hit.

The later you called it, the less room you had to delay it.

The same logic has clearly not been applied to the by-elections in Dublin Central and Galway West, which will take place on Friday, May 22.

The writ for the election is expected to be signed by housing minister James Browne on Thursday, with the starting gun officially fired for elections for which candidates are already canvassing.

The writ for a by-election must be moved six months after the seat is vacated; Catherine Connolly’s seat in Galway West became empty when she was elected president on October 25.

Former finance minister Paschal Donohoe’s resignation from the Dáil on November 21 to accept a job with the World Bank left a vacancy in Dublin Central.

The Government could not have waited any longer to call these elections if it tried — and the timing could not be worse.

Public anger has swirled in recent weeks due to the rising cost of living and the Government’s response to the fuel protests.

The upcoming by-elections are set to be a referendum on the Coalition.

While neither Fine Gael nor Fianna Fáil were expected to win the seats up for grabs, it was thought Fine Gael’s Sean Kyne would perform well in Galway West.

His chances are now thought to have been weakened following the omnipresence of Independent Ireland councillor Noel Thomas during the protests.

Thomas, a former Fianna Fáil councillor who left the party when he suggested the “inn was full” while opposing asylum accommodation in Oughterard, contested the last general election.

He received 9.46% of first-preference votes compared to Kyne’s 8.85%. 

However, Thomas managed to earn higher levels of transfers, leaving him in the race until the 16th and final count, whereas Kyne was eliminated after the 13th.

Cillian Keane, a 25-year-old Fianna Fáil councillor, is not expected to perform well, with several party sources telling the Irish Examinerthere have been difficulties getting people to canvass for him.

Other candidates in the race include Independents Mike Cubbard, Sheila Garrity (a Catherine Connolly ally), and Thomas Welby. 

Sinn Féin will run Mark Lohan, the Greens selected Niall Murphy, and Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich is the Social Democrats' candidate. 

Orla Nugent (Aontú), Helen Ogbu (Labour), Denman Rooke (People Before Profit), and AJ Cahill (Irish People's Party) will also contest the by-election.

With the return of Gerry ‘The Monk’ Hutch in Dublin Central, the constituency is again likely to be the more exciting election campaign.

Social Democrats councillor Daniel Ennis is the frontrunner. He will be on the ballot alongside Janice Boylan (Sinn Féin), Janet Horner (Green Party), Eoghan Ó Ceannabháin (People Before Profit), Ruth O’Dea (Labour), Ian Noel Smyth (Aonú), and Independents Colm Flood and Malachy Steenson.

Fine Gael will run the current Lord Mayor of Dublin, Ray McAdam, while Fianna Fáil will run John Stephens, a Bertie Ahern ally who will be hoping this will help him in the former Taoiseach’s old stomping ground.

Both are likely to face uphill battles because of their connections to Government parties. Because at a time when the Government insists it is rolling in cash, the public has never felt so isolated.

The protests, and some of the public support that was confirmed by opinion polling, have shown how frustrated people are with the Government.

There is no doubt the May 22 by-elections will be a referendum on the Government parties.

Unlike with the last general election, they have left themselves with no wriggle room and no option but to run an election in the eye of a storm.