Irish Examiner Rural Ireland Thinks poll: Simon Harris most popular party leader

Irish Examiner/Ipsos Rural Ireland Thinks poll will make worrying reading for Mary Lou McDonald who has seen support for Sinn Féin and her leadership of the party slip in recent months

Taoiseach Simon Harris, who has spent much of the summer recess visiting agricultural shows, festivals, and community events across the country, is now the most popular party leader among rural voters, according to a new an Irish Examiner/Ipsos rural Ireland poll. Picture: Stephen Collins/Collins Photos

Fine Gael is the most popular party among rural voters, with concerns for Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin ahead of the general election, an exclusive Irish Examiner poll shows.

With the budget looming and speculation on a November general election at fever pitch, Taoiseach Simon Harris has seen support for his party rise to 27% among farmers and those living in rural Ireland.

Fianna Fáil, which gathers for its pre-Dáil think-in today, is now at 22%, with Sinn Féin support dropping to just 18%.

Independents, a group which has been gaining momentum, are on 20%, and will now be seen as a threat to party candidates in many rural constituencies.

22%

27%

18%

INDEPENDENTS

20%

SOCIAL
DEMOCRATS

3%

LABOUR

3%

GREEN
PARTY

1%

OTHER

5%

Figures exclude those who said they didn’t intend to vote in the next general election and those who declined to reveal their current preference.

RESULTS: GENERAL ELECTION 2024

Scroll for results in your area

Cork East

Cork North Central

Cork North West

Cork South Central

Cork South West

Kerry

Clare

Limerick City

Limerick County

Tipperary North

Tipperary South

Waterford

Dublin Bay North

Dublin Bay South

Dublin Central

Dublin Fingal East

Dublin Fingal West

Dublin Mid West

Dublin North West

Dublin Rathdown

Dublin South Central

Dublin South West

Dublin West

Dun Laoghaire

Carlow/Kilkenny

Kildare North

Kildare South

Laois

Longford/Westmeath

Louth

Meath East

Meath West

Offaly

Wexford

Wicklow

Wicklow/Wexford

Cavan/Monaghan

Donegal

Galway East

Galway West

Mayo

Roscommon/Galway

Sligo/Leitrim

The results are part of an Irish Examiner/Ipsos rural Ireland face-to-face survey which gauged the perceptions of those living outside of the major urban areas.

It reveals interesting findings on healthcare, childcare, immigration, domestic violence, climate change, road safety, and the right to die.

A bounce in support for Fine Gael will only increase the pressure on Mr Harris to call a general election this side of Christmas. However, the Taoiseach has maintained that he wants the Coalition to serve its full term, which could bring it all the way out to March.

Mr Harris, who spent much of the summer recess visiting agricultural shows, festivals, and community events across the country, is now the most popular party leader among rural voters.

When asked to rate the performance of various political leaders, 36% of those surveyed awarded the Taoiseach a mark of at least eight out of 10. That compares to 28% for Tánaiste Micheál Martin, and 10% for Mary Lou McDonald.

This will represent a blow for the Sinn Féin leader, whose party had reached a high of 37% national support back in October 2022.

Its overall party support is also in line with a separate poll published over the weekend, which put it on 18%.

Party Leader Scorecards

WE ASKED: How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the following party leaders on a scale from 1 to 10 where 1 is extremely dissatisfied and 10 is extremely satisfied?

Simon Harris - Fine Gael

Micheál Martin - Fianna Fáil

Mary Lou McDonald - Sinn Féin

Roderic O'Gorman - Green Party

Holly Cairns - Social Democrats

Ivana Bacik - Labour

When asked directly about her leadership, 43% of respondents said they feel Ms McDonald has damaged the party’s chances of forming the next government, with 21% disagreeing. While support remains strong among Sinn Féin voters, a third of those who intend to give their preference to the party in the next election believe that she should step aside as leader.

Almost half of those who previously voted for Sinn Féin (45%) feel she has damaged her party, and just 51% of them would retain her as leader.

The party’s finance spokesperson Pearse Doherty is seen as a more attractive candidate to take over at the helm than Northern Ireland First Minister Michelle O’Neill.

When asked, 33% felt that Ms O’Neill would make a more effective leader of Sinn Féin and 34% would favour Mr Doherty. However, Mr Doherty elicits slightly greater opposition at 20%, compared to just 15% opposed to Ms O’Neill.

Looking at the smaller parties, 6% of people gave Labour leader Ivana Bacik and Social Democrats leader Holly Cairns a respective score of eight out of 10 or higher.

Overall party support for the Social Democrats and Labour is at 3%, the Green Party is on 1%, while ‘Others’ are on 5%.

Scoring just 1% means the poll will also be disappointing for the Green Party. Meanwhile, only 4% of those polled awarded a mark of at least eight out of 10 to recently-appointed party leader Roderic O’Gorman.

Almost four out of five people surveyed (78%) said they voted at the last general election and there was an almost even split between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, with each party on 26%.

A further 20% said they had voted Independent in the last election, while 19% voted for Sinn Féin.

The poll was conducted through face-to-face in-home interviewing between August 14 and August 25, 2024, across 50 randomly chosen sampling locations.

The sample was designed using electoral districts with a population size of fewer than 1,500 people, which are classified as rural.

The sample size was 500, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4%.