Dublin Bay-South: Counting underway in by-election

Higher-than-expected turnout in many areas could be a major factor in determining who gets the seat vacated by former Housing Minister Eoghan Murphy in April

Turnout was higher than expected by the close of polls. Overall turnout had reached 38% at 9pm last night.

Counting has begun in the Dublin Bay South by-election to decide who will fill the Dáil seat vacated by former Housing Minister Eoghan Murphy.

Turnout was higher than expected by the close of polls. Overall turnout had reached 38% at 9pm last night.

Of most significance was the confirmation that the lower-income area of Ringsend had the highest of four centres with 44%.

Other areas like Harold's Cross had 40%, Sandymount was on 41%, while Ranelagh, with a higher proportion of rental properties, was lower on 27%.

The higher turnout compared to a final turnout of 26% recorded for both the Dublin Fingal and Dublin Mid West by-elections in 2019. Dublin Bay South traditionally has a relatively low turnout due to its transient population and only recorded 52% in the last General Election.

The higher than expected turnout is seen as a boost to Sinn Féin’s candidate Lynn Boylan who is expected to outperform her 13% rating in an Irish Times opinion poll last week.

A better performance for Ms Boylan reflects three internal party polls which showed herself, Labour’s Ivana Bacik and Fine Gael’s James Geoghegan all close together.

The expectation is that Mr Geoghegan will be the poll topper, but could be caught on transfers.

Labour sources are hopeful that Ms Bacik can stay ahead of Ms Boylan and be transfer-friendly enough to see her overtake Mr Geoghegan.

A man enters a polling station in Ranelagh, Dublin, as voting in the Dublin Bay South by-election was under way on Thursday. Picture: Brian Lawless/PA Wire

Sinn Féin has focused their work on the lower part of the constituency, party sources have said.

The contest is seen as a three-horse race between Ms Boylan, James Geoghegan of Fine Gael and Ivana Bacik of Labour.

Three internal party polls, conducted in recent days showed Mr Geoghegan as the likely poll topper, but he could be vulnerable to transfers.

All the major parties mobilised significant canvassing teams in the final hours in order to maximise their vote.

There was some controversy yesterday as Fine Gael TDs and Senators, party members and volunteers handed out 30,000 leaflets across the constituency between 4am and 8am.

The count will be taking place at the RDS Simmonscourt in Ballsbridge but access is strictly limited due to Covid-19 restrictions.

However, the count will be live-streamed online on the website of the Dublin returning officer - https://www.dublincityreturningofficer.com/.

The full field of candidates is as follows: Ivana Bacik (Labour), Justin Barrett (National Party), Lynn Boylan (Sinn Fein), Claire Byrne (Green), Dolores Cahill (Ind), Deirdre Conroy (Fianna Fáil), Peter Dooley (Ind), Sarah Durcan (Soc Dems), Mannix Flynn (Ind), James Geoghegan (Fine Gael), Jacqui Gilbourne (Renua), John Keigher (Ind), Colm O'Keeffe (Ind), Brigid Purcell (Solidarity/PBP) and Mairead Tobin (Aontu).